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ATO Australian tax treatment for options trades 🇦🇺

I am posting this as I hope it will help other Australian options traders trading in US options with their tax treatment for ATO (Australian Tax Office) purposes. The ATO provides very little guidance on tax treatment for options trading and I had to do a lot of digging to get to this point. I welcome any feedback on this post.

The Deloitte Report from 2011

My initial research led me to this comprehensive Deloitte report from 2011 which is hosted on the ASX website. I've been through this document about 20 times and although it's a great report to understand how different scenarios apply, it's still really hard to find out what's changed since 2011.
I am mainly relating myself to the scenario of being an individual and non-sole trader (no business set up) for my trading. I think this will apply to many others here too. According to that document, there isn't much guidance on what happens when you're an options premium seller and close positions before they expire.
Note that the ATO sometimes uses the term "ETO" (Exchange Traded Option) to discuss what we're talking about here with options trading.
Also note: The ATO discusses the separate Capital Gains Tax ("CGT") events that occur in each scenario in some of their documents. A CGT event will then determine what tax treatment gets applied if you don't know much about capital gains in Australia.

ATO Request for Advice

Since the Deloitte report didn't answer my questions, I eventually ended up contacting the ATO with a request for advice and tried to explain my scenario: I'm an Australian resident for tax purposes, I'm trading with tastyworks in $USD, I'm primarily a premium seller and I don't have it set up with any business/company/trust etc. In effect, I have a rough idea that I'm looking at capital gains tax but I wanted to fully understand how it worked.
Initially the ATO respondent didn't understand what I was talking about when I said that I was selling a position first and buying it to close. According to the laws, there is no example of this given anywhere because it is always assumed in ATO examples that you buy a position and sell it. Why? I have no idea.
I sent a follow up request with even more detail to the ATO. I think (hope) they understood what I meant now after explaining what an options premium seller is!

Currency Gains/Losses

First, I have to consider translating my $USD to Australian dollars. How do we treat that?
FX Translation
If the premium from selling the options contract is received in $USD, do I convert it to $AUD on that day it is received?
ATO response:
Subsection 960-50(6), Item 5 of the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 (ITAA 1997) states the amount should be translated at the time of the transaction or event for the purposes of the Capital Gains Tax provisions. For the purpose of granting an option to an entity, the time of the event is when you grant the option (subsection 104-20(2) ITAA 1997).
This is a very detailed response which even refers to the level of which section in the law it is coming from. I now know that I need to translate my trades from $USD to $AUD according to the RBA's translation rates for every single trade.
But what about gains or losses on translation?
There is one major rule that overrides FX gains and losses after digging deeper. The ATO has a "$250k balance election". This will probably apply to a lot of people trading in balances below $250k a lot of the FX rules don't apply. It states:
However, the $250,000 balance election broadly enables you to disregard certain foreign currency gains and losses on certain foreign currency denominated bank accounts and credit card accounts (called qualifying forex accounts) with balances below a specified limit.
Therefore, I'm all good disregarding FX gains and losses! I just need to ensure I translate my trades on the day they occurred. It's a bit of extra admin to do unfortunately, but it is what it is.

Credit Trades

This is the scenario where we SELL a position first, collect premium, and close the position by making an opposite BUY order. Selling a naked PUT, for example.
What happens when you open the position? ATO Response:
The option is grantedCGT event D2 happens when a taxpayer grants an option. The time of the event is when the option is granted. The capital gain or loss arising is the difference between the capital proceeds and the expenditure incurred to grant the option.
This seems straight forward. We collect premium and record a capital gain.
What happens when you close the position? ATO Response:
Closing out an optionThe establishment of an ETO contract is referred to as opening a position (ASX Explanatory Booklet 'Understanding Options Trading'). A person who writes (sells) a call or put option may close out their position by taking (buying) an identical call or put option in the same series. This is referred to as the close-out of an option or the closing-out of an opening position.
CGT event C2 happens when a taxpayer's ownership of an intangible CGT asset ends. Paragraph 104-25(1)(a) of the ITAA 1997 provides that ownership of an intangible CGT asset ends by cancellation, surrender, or release or similar means.
CGT event C2 therefore happens to a taxpayer when their position under an ETO is closed out where the close-out results in the cancellation, release or discharge of the ETO.
Under subsection 104-25(3) of the ITAA 1997 you make a capital gain from CGT event C2 if the capital proceeds from the ending are more than the assets cost base. You make a capital loss if those capital proceeds are less than the assets reduced cost base.
Both CGT events (being D2 upon granting the option and C2 upon adopting the close out position) must be accounted for if applicable to a situation.
My take on this is that the BUY position that cancels out your SELL position will most often simply realise a capital loss (the entire portion of your BUY position). In effect, it 'cancels out' your original premium sold, but it's not recorded that way, it's recorded as two separate CGT events - your capital gain from CGT event D2 (SELL position), then, your capital loss from CGT event C2 (BUY position) is also recorded. In effect, they net each other out, but you don't record them as a 'netted out' number - you record them separately.
From what I understand, if you were trading as a sole tradecompany then you would record them as a netted out capital gain or loss, because the trades would be classified as trading stock but not in our case here as an individual person trading options. The example I've written below should hopefully make that clearer.
EXAMPLE:
Trade on 1 July 2020: Open position
Trade on 15 July 2020: Close position
We can see from this simple example that even though you made a gain on those trades, you still have to record the transactions separately, as first a gain, then as a loss. Note that it is not just a matter of netting off the value of the net profit collected and converting the profit to $AUD because the exchange rate will be different on the date of the opening trade and on the date of the closing trade we have to record them separately.

What if you don't close the position and the options are exercised? ATO Response:
The option is granted and then the option is exercisedUnder subsection 104-40(5) of the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997 (ITAA 1997) the capital gain or loss from the CGT event D2 is disregarded if the option is exercised. Subsection 134-1(1), item 1, of the ITAA 1997 refers to the consequences for the grantor of the exercise of the option.
Where the option binds the grantor to dispose of a CGT asset section 116-65 of the ITAA 1997 applies to the transaction.
Subsection 116-65(2) of the ITAA 1997 provides that the capital proceeds from the grant or disposal of the shares (CGT asset) include any payment received for granting the option. The disposal of the shares is a CGT event A1 which occurs under subsection 104-10(3) of the ITAA 1997 when the contract for disposal is entered into.
You would still make a capital gain at the happening of the CGT event D2 in the year the event occurs (the time the option is granted). That capital gain is disregarded when the option is exercised. Where the option is exercised in the subsequent tax year, the CGT event D2 gain is disregarded at that point. An amendment may be necessary to remove the gain previously included in taxable income for the year in which the CGT event D2 occurred.
This scenario is pretty unlikely - for me personally I never hold positions to expiration, but it is nice to know what happens with the tax treatment if it ultimately does come to that.

Debit Trades

What about the scenario when you want to BUY some options first, then SELL that position and close it later? Buying a CALL, for example. This case is what the ATO originally thought my request was about before I clarified with them. They stated:
When you buy an ETO, you acquire an asset (the ETO) for the amount paid for it (that is, the premium) plus any additional costs such as brokerage fees and the Australian Clearing House (ACH) fee. These costs together form the cost base of the ETO (section 109-5 of the ITAA 1997). On the close out of the position, you make a capital gain or loss equal to the difference between the cost base of the ETO and the amount received on its expiry or termination (subsection 104-25(3) of the ITAA 1997). The capital gain or loss is calculated on each parcel of options.
So it seems it is far easier to record debit trades for tax purposes. It is easier for the tax office to see that you open a position by buying it, and close it by selling it. And in that case you net off the total after selling it. This is very similar to a trading shares and the CGT treatment is in effect very similar (the main difference is that it is not coming under CGT event A1 because there is no asset to dispose of, like in a shares or property trade).

Other ATO Info (FYI)

The ATO also referred me to the following documents. They relate to some 'decisions' that they made from super funds but the same principles apply to individuals they said.
The ATO’s Interpretative Decision in relation to the tax treatment of premiums payable and receivable for exchange traded options can be found on the links below. Please note that the interpretative decisions below are in relation to self-managed superannuation funds but the same principles would apply in your situation [as an individual taxpayer, not as a super fund].
Premiums Receivable: ATO ID 2009/110

Some tips

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Forex Trading Basics Reddit - Forex Glossary Terms For Beginners

Forex Trading Basics Reddit - Forex Glossary Terms For Beginners

What is Forex - Terminology

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The FOREX market is the largest financial market in the world. On a daily basis, trillions of dollars are traded in different currencies around the world.
Being FOREX the basis for international capital transactions, its liquidity and volume are much greater than any other financial market. It is estimated that the average volume traded by the world's largest stock exchange, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in a full month, is equal to the volume traded daily in the Forex currency market. In addition, it is estimated that this volume will increase by 25% annually.
80% of transactions are between the US dollar (USD), the euro (EUR), the yen (JPY), the British pound (GBP), the Swiss franc (CHF), and the Australian dollars (AUD) and Canadian (CAD).

What is traded in the Forex market?

We could just say that money. Trading in FOREX simultaneously involves buying one currency (for example euros) and selling another (for example US dollars). These simultaneous purchase and sale operations are carried out through online brokers. Operations are specified in pairs; for example the euro and the dollar (EUR / USD) or the pound sterling and the Yen (GBP / JPY).
These types of transactions can be somewhat confusing at first since nothing is being purchased physically. Basically, each currency is tied to the economy of its respective country and its value is a direct reflection of people's perception of that economy. For example, if there is a perception that the economy in Japan is going to weaken, the Yen is likely to be devalued against other currencies. In other words, people are going to sell Yen and they are going to buy currencies from countries where the economy is or will be better than Japan.
In general, the exchange of one currency for another reflects the condition of the health of the economy of that country with respect to the health of the economy of other countries.
Unlike other financial markets such as the stock market, the currency market does not have a fixed location like the largest exchanges in the world. These types of markets are known as OTC (Over The Counter). Transactions take place independently around the world, mainly over the Internet, and prices can vary from place to place.
Due to its decentralized nature, the foreign exchange market is operated 24 hours a day from Monday to Friday.
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Forex Trading Basics - Basic Forex Terminology

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As with any new skill that is learned, it is also necessary to learn its terminology. There are certain terms that you must know before you start trading Forex. Here are the main ones.

• Major and minor currencies

The 8 most widely used currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD, NZD, and AUD) are known as “ major currencies ”. All other currencies are called " minor currencies ." You don't need to worry about minor currencies, as you probably won't start trading them for now. The USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, and CHF currencies are the most popular and most liquid currencies on the market.

• Base currency

The base currency is the first currency in any currency pair. It shows how much the base currency is worth against the second currency. For example, if the USD / CHF has a rate of 1.6350, it means that 1 USD is worth 1.6350 CHF. In the forex market, the US dollar is in many cases the base currency to make quotes, the quotes are expressed in units of $ 1 on the other currency of the pair.
In some other pairs, the base currency is the British pound, the euro, the Australian dollar, or the New Zealand dollar.

• Quoted currency

The quote currency is the second currency in the currency pair. This is often referred to as a "pip-currency" and any unrealized gains or losses are expressed in this currency.

• Pip

A pip is the smallest unit of the price of any currency. Almost all currencies consist of 5 significant digits and most pairs have the decimal point immediately after the first digit. For example EUR / USD = 1.2538, in this case, a pip is the smallest change in the fourth decimal space, which is, 0.0001.
A notable exception is the USD / JPY pair where the pip equals $ 0.01.

• Purchase price (bid)

The buying price (bid) is the price at which the market is ready to buy a specific currency in the Forex market. At this price, one can sell the base currency. The purchase price is displayed on the left side.
For example, in GBP / USD = 1.88112 / 15, the selling price is 1.8812. This means that you can sell a GPB for $ 1.8812.

• Sale Price (ask)

The asking price is the price at which the market is ready to sell a specific currency pair in the Forex market. At this price, you can buy the base currency. The sale price is displayed on the right-hand side.
For example, at EUR / USD = 1.2812 / 15, the selling price here is 1.2815. This means that you can buy one euro for $ 1.2815. The selling price is also called the bid price.

• Spread

All Forex quotes include two prices, the bid (offer) and the ask (demand).
The bid is the price at which the broker is willing to buy the base currency in exchange for the quoted currency. This means that the bid is the price at which you can sell.
The ask is the price at which the broker is willing to sell the base currency in exchange for the quoted currency. This means that the ask is the price at which you will buy. The difference between the bid and the ask is popularly known as the spread and is the consideration that the online broker receives for its services.

• Transaction costs

The transaction cost, which could be said to be the same as the Spread, is calculated as: Transaction Cost = Ask - Bid. It is the number of pips that are paid when opening a position. The final amount also depends on the size of the operation.
It is important to note that depending on the broker and the volatility, the difference between the ask and the bid can increase, making it more expensive to open a trade. This generally happens when there is a lot of volatility and little liquidity, as happens during the announcement of some relevant economic data.

• Cross currency

A cross-currency is any pair where one of the currencies is the US dollar (USD). These pairs show an erratic price behavior when the operator opens two operations in US dollars. For example, opening a long trade to buy EUR / GPB is equivalent to buying EUR / USD and selling GPB / USD. Cross-currency pairs generally carry a higher transaction cost.

• Margin

When you open a new account margin with a Forex broker, you must deposit a minimum amount of money to your broker. This minimum varies depending on each broker and can be as low as € / $ 100 at higher amounts.
Each time a new trade is executed a percentage of your account margin balance will be the initial margin required for a new trade based on the underlying currency pair, current price, and the number of units (or lots) of the trade. .
For example, let's say you open a mini account which gives you a leverage of 1: 200 or a margin of 0.5%. Mini accounts work with mini lots. Suppose a mini lot equals $ 10,000. If you are about to open a mini lot, instead of having to invest $ 10,000, you will only need $ 50 ($ 10,000 x 0.5% = $ 50).

• Leverage

Leverage is the ratio of the capital used in a transaction to the required deposit. It is the ability to control large amounts of dollars with relatively less capital. Leverage varies drastically depending on the broker, it can go from 1: 2 to even 1: 2000. The most common level of leverage in Forex can currently be around 1: 200.

• Margin + leverage = dangerous combination

Trading currencies on margin allows you to increase your buying power. This means that if you have $ 5,000 in account margin that allows you a 1: 100 leverage, you can then buy $ 500,000 in foreign exchange as you only have to invest a percentage of the purchase price. Another way of saying this is that you have $ 500,000 in purchasing power.
With more purchasing power you can greatly increase your potential profits without an outlay of cash. But be careful, working with a high margin increases your profits but also your losses if the trade does not progress in your favor.
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Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL)


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Download PDF of this article here: https://docdro.id/6eLgUPo
In light of the recent fall in oil prices due to the Saudi-Russian dispute and dampening demand for oil due to the lockdowns implemented globally, O&G stocks have taken a severe beating, falling approximately 50% from their highs at the beginning of the year. Not spared from this onslaught is Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (Hibiscus), a listed oil and gas (O&G) exploration and production (E&P) company.
Why invest in O&G stocks in this particularly uncertain period? For one, valuations of these stocks have fallen to multi-year lows, bringing the potential ROI on these stocks to attractive levels. Oil prices are cyclical, and are bound to return to the mean given a sufficiently long time horizon. The trick is to find those companies who can survive through this downturn and emerge into “normal” profitability once oil prices rebound.
In this article, I will explore the upsides and downsides of investing in Hibiscus. I will do my best to cater this report to newcomers to the O&G industry – rather than address exclusively experts and veterans of the O&G sector. As an equity analyst, I aim to provide a view on the company primarily, and will generally refrain from providing macro views on oil or opinions about secular trends of the sector. I hope you enjoy reading it!
Stock code: 5199.KL
Stock name: Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad
Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5199
Company website: https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/

Company Snapshot

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL) is an oil and gas (O&G) upstream exploration and production (E&P) company located in Malaysia. As an E&P company, their business can be basically described as:
· looking for oil,
· drawing it out of the ground, and
· selling it on global oil markets.
This means Hibiscus’s profits are particularly exposed to fluctuating oil prices. With oil prices falling to sub-$30 from about $60 at the beginning of the year, Hibiscus’s stock price has also fallen by about 50% YTD – from around RM 1.00 to RM 0.45 (as of 5 April 2020).
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While the company is domiciled in Malaysia, its two main oil producing fields are located in both Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysian oil field is commonly referred to as the North Sabah field, while the UK oil field is commonly referred to as the Anasuria oil field. Hibiscus has licenses to other oil fields in different parts of the world, notably the Marigold/Sunflower oil fields in the UK and the VIC cluster in Australia, but its revenues and profits mainly stem from the former two oil producing fields.
Given that it’s a small player and has only two primary producing oil fields, it’s not surprising that Hibiscus sells its oil to a concentrated pool of customers, with 2 of them representing 80% of its revenues (i.e. Petronas and BP). Fortunately, both these customers are oil supermajors, and are unlikely to default on their obligations despite low oil prices.
At RM 0.45 per share, the market capitalization is RM 714.7m and it has a trailing PE ratio of about 5x. It doesn’t carry any debt, and it hasn’t paid a dividend in its listing history. The MD, Mr. Kenneth Gerard Pereira, owns about 10% of the company’s outstanding shares.

Reserves (Total recoverable oil) & Production (bbl/day)

To begin analyzing the company, it’s necessary to understand a little of the industry jargon. We’ll start with Reserves and Production.
In general, there are three types of categories for a company’s recoverable oil volumes – Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources. Reserves are those oil fields which are “commercial”, which is defined as below:
As defined by the SPE PRMS, Reserves are “… quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.” Therefore, Reserves must be discovered (by drilling, recoverable (with current technology), remaining in the subsurface (at the effective date of the evaluation) and “commercial” based on the development project proposed.)
Note that Reserves are associated with development projects. To be considered as “commercial”, there must be a firm intention to proceed with the project in a reasonable time frame (typically 5 years, and such intention must be based upon all of the following criteria:)
- A reasonable assessment of the future economics of the development project meeting defined investment and operating criteria; - A reasonable expectation that there will be a market for all or at least the expected sales quantities of production required to justify development; - Evidence that the necessary production and transportation facilities are available or can be made available; and - Evidence that legal, contractual, environmental and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual implementation of the recovery project being evaluated.
Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources are further defined as below:
- Contingent Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered volumes but is not (yet commercial (as defined above); and) - Prospective Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets as yet undiscovered volumes.
In the industry lingo, we generally refer to Reserves as ‘P’ and Contingent Resources as ‘C’. These ‘P’ and ‘C’ resources can be further categorized into 1P/2P/3P resources and 1C/2C/3C resources, each referring to a low/medium/high estimate of the company’s potential recoverable oil volumes:
- Low/1C/1P estimate: there should be reasonable certainty that volumes actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate; - Best/2C/2P estimate: there should be an equal likelihood of the actual volumes of petroleum being larger or smaller than the estimate; and - High/3C/3P estimate: there is a low probability that the estimate will be exceeded.
Hence in the E&P industry, it is easy to see why most investors and analysts refer to the 2P estimate as the best estimate for a company’s actual recoverable oil volumes. This is because 2P reserves (‘2P’ referring to ‘Proved and Probable’) are a middle estimate of the recoverable oil volumes legally recognized as “commercial”.
However, there’s nothing stopping you from including 2C resources (riskier) or utilizing 1P resources (conservative) as your estimate for total recoverable oil volumes, depending on your risk appetite. In this instance, the company has provided a snapshot of its 2P and 2C resources in its analyst presentation:
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Basically, what the company is saying here is that by 2021, it will have classified as 2P reserves at least 23.7 million bbl from its Anasuria field and 20.5 million bbl from its North Sabah field – for total 2P reserves of 44.2 million bbl (we are ignoring the Australian VIC cluster as it is only estimated to reach first oil by 2022).
Furthermore, the company is stating that they have discovered (but not yet legally classified as “commercial”) a further 71 million bbl of oil from both the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, as well as the Marigold/Sunflower fields. If we include these 2C resources, the total potential recoverable oil volumes could exceed 100 million bbl.
In this report, we shall explore all valuation scenarios giving consideration to both 2P and 2C resources.
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The company further targets a 2021 production rate of 20,000 bbl (LTM: 8,000 bbl), which includes 5,000 bbl from its Anasuria field (LTM: 2,500 bbl) and 7,000 bbl from its North Sabah field (LTM: 5,300 bbl).
This is a substantial increase in forecasted production from both existing and prospective oil fields. If it materializes, annual production rate could be as high as 7,300 mmbbl, and 2021 revenues (given FY20 USD/bbl of $60) could exceed RM 1.5 billion (FY20: RM 988 million).
However, this targeted forecast is quite a stretch from current production levels. Nevertheless, we shall consider all provided information in estimating a valuation for Hibiscus.
To understand Hibiscus’s oil production capacity and forecast its revenues and profits, we need to have a better appreciation of the performance of its two main cash-generating assets – the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field.

North Sabah oil field
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Hibiscus owns a 50% interest in the North Sabah field together with its partner Petronas, and has production rights over the field up to year 2040. The asset contains 4 oil fields, namely the St Joseph field, South Furious field, SF 30 field and Barton field.
For the sake of brevity, we shall not delve deep into the operational aspects of the fields or the contractual nature of its production sharing contract (PSC). We’ll just focus on the factors which relate to its financial performance. These are:
· Average uptime
· Total oil sold
· Average realized oil price
· Average OPEX per bbl
With regards to average uptime, we can see that the company maintains relative high facility availability, exceeding 90% uptime in all quarters of the LTM with exception of Jul-Sep 2019. The dip in average uptime was due to production enhancement projects and maintenance activities undertaken to improve the production capacity of the St Joseph and SF30 oil fields.
Hence, we can conclude that management has a good handle on operational performance. It also implies that there is little room for further improvement in production resulting from increased uptime.
As North Sabah is under a production sharing contract (PSC), there is a distinction between gross oil production and net oil production. The former relates to total oil drawn out of the ground, whereas the latter refers to Hibiscus’s share of oil production after taxes, royalties and expenses are accounted for. In this case, we want to pay attention to net oil production, not gross.
We can arrive at Hibiscus’s total oil sold for the last twelve months (LTM) by adding up the total oil sold for each of the last 4 quarters. Summing up the figures yields total oil sold for the LTM of approximately 2,075,305 bbl.
Then, we can arrive at an average realized oil price over the LTM by averaging the average realized oil price for the last 4 quarters, giving us an average realized oil price over the LTM of USD 68.57/bbl. We can do the same for average OPEX per bbl, giving us an average OPEX per bbl over the LTM of USD 13.23/bbl.
Thus, we can sum up the above financial performance of the North Sabah field with the following figures:
· Total oil sold: 2,075,305 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 68.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 13.23/bbl

Anasuria oil field
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Doing the same exercise as above for the Anasuria field, we arrive at the following financial performance for the Anasuria field:
· Total oil sold: 1,073,304 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 63.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 23.22/bbl
As gas production is relatively immaterial, and to be conservative, we shall only consider the crude oil production from the Anasuria field in forecasting revenues.

Valuation (Method 1)

Putting the figures from both oil fields together, we get the following data:
https://preview.redd.it/7y6064dq8br41.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a4120563a011cf61fc6090e1cd5932602599dc2
Given that we have determined LTM EBITDA of RM 632m, the next step would be to subtract ITDA (interest, tax, depreciation & amortization) from it to obtain estimated LTM Net Profit. Using FY2020’s ITDA of approximately RM 318m as a guideline, we arrive at an estimated LTM Net Profit of RM 314m (FY20: 230m). Given the current market capitalization of RM 714.7m, this implies a trailing LTM PE of 2.3x.
Performing a sensitivity analysis given different oil prices, we arrive at the following net profit table for the company under different oil price scenarios, assuming oil production rate and ITDA remain constant:
https://preview.redd.it/xixge5sr8br41.png?width=433&format=png&auto=webp&s=288a00f6e5088d01936f0217ae7798d2cfcf11f2
From the above exercise, it becomes apparent that Hibiscus has a breakeven oil price of about USD 41.8863/bbl, and has a lot of operating leverage given the exponential rate of increase in its Net Profit with each consequent increase in oil prices.
Considering that the oil production rate (EBITDA) is likely to increase faster than ITDA’s proportion to revenues (fixed costs), at an implied PE of 4.33x, it seems likely that an investment in Hibiscus will be profitable over the next 10 years (with the assumption that oil prices will revert to the mean in the long-term).

Valuation (Method 2)

Of course, there are a lot of assumptions behind the above method of valuation. Hence, it would be prudent to perform multiple methods of valuation and compare the figures to one another.
As opposed to the profit/loss assessment in Valuation (Method 1), another way of performing a valuation would be to estimate its balance sheet value, i.e. total revenues from 2P Reserves, and assign a reasonable margin to it.
https://preview.redd.it/o2eiss6u8br41.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=03960cce698d9cedb076f3d5f571b3c59d908fa8
From the above, we understand that Hibiscus’s 2P reserves from the North Sabah and Anasuria fields alone are approximately 44.2 mmbbl (we ignore contribution from Australia’s VIC cluster as it hasn’t been developed yet).
Doing a similar sensitivity analysis of different oil prices as above, we arrive at the following estimated total revenues and accumulated net profit:
https://preview.redd.it/h8hubrmw8br41.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d23f0f9c3dafda89e758b815072ba335467f33e
Let’s assume that the above average of RM 9.68 billion in total realizable revenues from current 2P reserves holds true. If we assign a conservative Net Profit margin of 15% (FY20: 23%; past 5 years average: 16%), we arrive at estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion. Given the current market capitalization of RM 714 million, we might be able to say that the equity is worth about twice the current share price.
However, it is understandable that some readers might feel that the figures used in the above estimate (e.g. net profit margin of 15%) were randomly plucked from the sky. So how do we reconcile them with figures from the financial statements? Fortunately, there appears to be a way to do just that.
Intangible Assets
I refer you to a figure in the financial statements which provides a shortcut to the valuation of 2P Reserves. This is the carrying value of Intangible Assets on the Balance Sheet.
As of 2QFY21, that amount was RM 1,468,860,000 (i.e. RM 1.468 billion).
https://preview.redd.it/hse8ttb09br41.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=82e48b5961c905fe9273cb6346368de60202ebec
Quite coincidentally, one might observe that this figure is dangerously close to the estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion we calculated earlier. But why would this amount matter at all?
To answer that, I refer you to the notes of the Annual Report FY20 (AR20). On page 148 of the AR20, we find the following two paragraphs:
E&E assets comprise of rights and concession and conventional studies. Following the acquisition of a concession right to explore a licensed area, the costs incurred such as geological and geophysical surveys, drilling, commercial appraisal costs and other directly attributable costs of exploration and appraisal including technical and administrative costs, are capitalised as conventional studies, presented as intangible assets.
E&E assets are assessed for impairment when facts and circumstances suggest that the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount. The Group will allocate E&E assets to cash generating unit (“CGU”s or groups of CGUs for the purpose of assessing such assets for impairment. Each CGU or group of units to which an E&E asset is allocated will not be larger than an operating segment as disclosed in Note 39 to the financial statements.)
Hence, we can determine that firstly, the intangible asset value represents capitalized costs of acquisition of the oil fields, including technical exploration costs and costs of acquiring the relevant licenses. Secondly, an impairment review will be carried out when “the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount”, with E&E assets being allocated to “cash generating units” (CGU) for the purposes of assessment.
On page 169 of the AR20, we find the following:
Carrying amounts of the Group’s intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO are reviewed for possible impairment annually including any indicators of impairment. For the purpose of assessing impairment, assets are grouped at the lowest level CGUs for which there is a separately identifiable cash flow available. These CGUs are based on operating areas, represented by the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC (“North Sabah”, the Anasuria Cluster, the Marigold and Sunflower fields, the VIC/P57 exploration permit (“VIC/P57”) and the VIC/L31 production license (“VIC/L31”).)
So apparently, the CGUs that have been assigned refer to the respective oil producing fields, two of which include the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. In order to perform the impairment review, estimates of future cash flow will be made by management to assess the “recoverable amount” (as described above), subject to assumptions and an appropriate discount rate.
Hence, what we can gather up to now is that management will estimate future recoverable cash flows from a CGU (i.e. the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields), compare that to their carrying value, and perform an impairment if their future recoverable cash flows are less than their carrying value. In other words, if estimated accumulated profits from the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are less than their carrying value, an impairment is required.
So where do we find the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields? Further down on page 184 in the AR20, we see the following:
Included in rights and concession are the carrying amounts of producing field licenses in the Anasuria Cluster amounting to RM668,211,518 (2018: RM687,664,530, producing field licenses in North Sabah amounting to RM471,031,008 (2018: RM414,333,116))
Hence, we can determine that the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. But where do we find the future recoverable cash flows of the fields as estimated by management, and what are the assumptions used in that calculation?
Fortunately, we find just that on page 185:
17 INTANGIBLE ASSETS (CONTINUED)
(a Anasuria Cluster)
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for Anasuria Cluster during the current financial year. In the previous financial year, due to uncertainties in crude oil prices, the Group has assessed the recoverable amount of the intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO relating to the Anasuria Cluster. The recoverable amount is determined using the FVLCTS model based on discounted cash flows (“DCF” derived from the expected cash in/outflow pattern over the production lives.)
The key assumptions used to determine the recoverable amount for the Anasuria Cluster were as follows:
(i Discount rate of 10%;)
(ii Future cost inflation factor of 2% per annum;)
(iii Oil price forecast based on the oil price forward curve from independent parties; and,)
(iv Oil production profile based on the assessment by independent oil and gas reserve experts.)
Based on the assessments performed, the Directors concluded that the recoverable amount calculated based on the valuation model is higher than the carrying amount.
(b North Sabah)
The acquisition of the North Sabah assets was completed in the previous financial year. Details of the acquisition are as disclosed in Note 15 to the financial statements.
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for North Sabah during the current financial year.
Here, we can see that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field was estimated based on a DCF of expected future cash flows over the production life of the asset. The key assumptions used by management all seem appropriate, including a discount rate of 10% and oil price and oil production estimates based on independent assessment. From there, management concludes that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field is higher than its carrying amount (i.e. no impairment required). Likewise, for the North Sabah field.
How do we interpret this? Basically, what management is saying is that given a 10% discount rate and independent oil price and oil production estimates, the accumulated profits (i.e. recoverable amount) from both the North Sabah and the Anasuria fields exceed their carrying amounts of RM 471m and RM 668m respectively.
In other words, according to management’s own estimates, the carrying value of the Intangible Assets of RM 1.468 billion approximates the accumulated Net Profit recoverable from 2P reserves.
To conclude Valuation (Method 2), we arrive at the following:

Our estimates Management estimates
Accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves RM 1.452 billion RM 1.468 billion

Financials

By now, we have established the basic economics of Hibiscus’s business, including its revenues (i.e. oil production and oil price scenarios), costs (OPEX, ITDA), profitability (breakeven, future earnings potential) and balance sheet value (2P reserves, valuation). Moving on, we want to gain a deeper understanding of the 3 statements to anticipate any blind spots and risks. We’ll refer to the financial statements of both the FY20 annual report and the 2Q21 quarterly report in this analysis.
For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out those line items which need extra attention, and skip over the rest. Feel free to go through the financial statements on your own to gain a better familiarity of the business.
https://preview.redd.it/h689bss79br41.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed47fce6a5c3815dd3d4f819e31f1ce39ccf4a0b
Income Statement
First, we’ll start with the Income Statement on page 135 of the AR20. Revenues are straightforward, as we’ve discussed above. Cost of Sales and Administrative Expenses fall under the jurisdiction of OPEX, which we’ve also seen earlier. Other Expenses are mostly made up of Depreciation & Amortization of RM 115m.
Finance Costs are where things start to get tricky. Why does a company which carries no debt have such huge amounts of finance costs? The reason can be found in Note 8, where it is revealed that the bulk of finance costs relate to the unwinding of discount of provision for decommissioning costs of RM 25m (Note 32).
https://preview.redd.it/4omjptbe9br41.png?width=1019&format=png&auto=webp&s=eaabfc824134063100afa62edfd36a34a680fb60
This actually refers to the expected future costs of restoring the Anasuria and North Sabah fields to their original condition once the oil reserves have been depleted. Accounting standards require the company to provide for these decommissioning costs as they are estimable and probable. The way the decommissioning costs are accounted for is the same as an amortized loan, where the initial carrying value is recognized as a liability and the discount rate applied is reversed each year as an expense on the Income Statement. However, these expenses are largely non-cash in nature and do not necessitate a cash outflow every year (FY20: RM 69m).
Unwinding of discount on non-current other payables of RM 12m relate to contractual payments to the North Sabah sellers. We will discuss it later.
Taxation is another tricky subject, and is even more significant than Finance Costs at RM 161m. In gist, Hibiscus is subject to the 38% PITA (Petroleum Income Tax Act) under Malaysian jurisdiction, and the 30% Petroleum tax + 10% Supplementary tax under UK jurisdiction. Of the RM 161m, RM 41m of it relates to deferred tax which originates from the difference between tax treatment and accounting treatment on capitalized assets (accelerated depreciation vs straight-line depreciation). Nonetheless, what you should take away from this is that the tax expense is a tangible expense and material to breakeven analysis.
Fortunately, tax is a variable expense, and should not materially impact the cash flow of Hibiscus in today’s low oil price environment.
Note: Cash outflows for Tax Paid in FY20 was RM 97m, substantially below the RM 161m tax expense.
https://preview.redd.it/1xrnwzm89br41.png?width=732&format=png&auto=webp&s=c078bc3e18d9c79d9a6fbe1187803612753f69d8
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Hibiscus is unexciting; I’ll just bring your attention to those line items which need additional scrutiny. I’ll use the figures in the latest 2Q21 quarterly report (2Q21) and refer to the notes in AR20 for clarity.
We’ve already discussed Intangible Assets in the section above, so I won’t dwell on it again.
Moving on, the company has Equipment of RM 582m, largely relating to O&G assets (e.g. the Anasuria FPSO vessel and CAPEX incurred on production enhancement projects). Restricted cash and bank balances represent contractual obligations for decommissioning costs of the Anasuria Cluster, and are inaccessible for use in operations.
Inventories are relatively low, despite Hibiscus being an E&P company, so forex fluctuations on carrying value of inventories are relatively immaterial. Trade receivables largely relate to entitlements from Petronas and BP (both oil supermajors), and are hence quite safe from impairment. Other receivables, deposits and prepayments are significant as they relate to security deposits placed with sellers of the oil fields acquired; these should be ignored for cash flow purposes.
Note: Total cash and bank balances do not include approximately RM 105 m proceeds from the North Sabah December 2019 offtake (which was received in January 2020)
Cash and bank balances of RM 90m do not include RM 105m of proceeds from offtake received in 3Q21 (Jan 2020). Hence, the actual cash and bank balances as of 2Q21 approximate RM 200m.
Liabilities are a little more interesting. First, I’ll draw your attention to the significant Deferred tax liabilities of RM 457m. These largely relate to the amortization of CAPEX (i.e. Equipment and capitalized E&E expenses), which is given an accelerated depreciation treatment for tax purposes.
The way this works is that the government gives Hibiscus a favorable tax treatment on capital expenditures incurred via an accelerated depreciation schedule, so that the taxable income is less than usual. However, this leads to the taxable depreciation being utilized quicker than accounting depreciation, hence the tax payable merely deferred to a later period – when the tax depreciation runs out but accounting depreciation remains. Given the capital intensive nature of the business, it is understandable why Deferred tax liabilities are so large.
We’ve discussed Provision for decommissioning costs under the Finance Costs section earlier. They are also quite significant at RM 266m.
Notably, the Other Payables and Accruals are a hefty RM 431m. What do they relate to? Basically, they are contractual obligations to the sellers of the oil fields which are only payable upon oil prices reaching certain thresholds. Hence, while they are current in nature, they will only become payable when oil prices recover to previous highs, and are hence not an immediate cash outflow concern given today’s low oil prices.
Cash Flow Statement
There is nothing in the cash flow statement which warrants concern.
Notably, the company generated OCF of approximately RM 500m in FY20 and RM 116m in 2Q21. It further incurred RM 330m and RM 234m of CAPEX in FY20 and 2Q21 respectively, largely owing to production enhancement projects to increase the production rate of the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, which according to management estimates are accretive to ROI.
Tax paid was RM 97m in FY20 and RM 61m in 2Q21 (tax expense: RM 161m and RM 62m respectively).

Risks

There are a few obvious and not-so-obvious risks that one should be aware of before investing in Hibiscus. We shall not consider operational risks (e.g. uptime, OPEX) as they are outside the jurisdiction of the equity analyst. Instead, we shall focus on the financial and strategic risks largely outside the control of management. The main ones are:
· Oil prices remaining subdued for long periods of time
· Fluctuation of exchange rates
· Customer concentration risk
· 2P Reserves being less than estimated
· Significant current and non-current liabilities
· Potential issuance of equity
Oil prices remaining subdued
Of topmost concern in the minds of most analysts is whether Hibiscus has the wherewithal to sustain itself through this period of low oil prices (sub-$30). A quick and dirty estimate of annual cash outflow (i.e. burn rate) assuming a $20 oil world and historical production rates is between RM 50m-70m per year, which considering the RM 200m cash balance implies about 3-4 years of sustainability before the company runs out of cash and has to rely on external assistance for financing.
Table 1: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and exchange rates
https://preview.redd.it/gxnekd6h9br41.png?width=670&format=png&auto=webp&s=edbfb9621a43480d11e3b49de79f61a6337b3d51
The above table shows different EBITDA scenarios (RM ‘m) given different oil prices (left column) and USD:MYR exchange rates (top row). Currently, oil prices are $27 and USD:MYR is 1:4.36.
Given conservative assumptions of average OPEX/bbl of $20 (current: $15), we can safely say that the company will be loss-making as long as oil remains at $20 or below (red). However, we can see that once oil prices hit $25, the company can tank the lower-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 50m (orange), while at RM $27 it can sufficiently muddle through the higher-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 70m (green).
Hence, we can assume that as long as the average oil price over the next 3-4 years remains above $25, Hibiscus should come out of this fine without the need for any external financing.
Customer Concentration Risk
With regards to customer concentration risk, there is not much the analyst or investor can do except to accept the risk. Fortunately, 80% of revenues can be attributed to two oil supermajors (Petronas and BP), hence the risk of default on contractual obligations and trade receivables seems to be quite diminished.
2P Reserves being less than estimated
2P Reserves being less than estimated is another risk that one should keep in mind. Fortunately, the current market cap is merely RM 714m – at half of estimated recoverable amounts of RM 1.468 billion – so there’s a decent margin of safety. In addition, there are other mitigating factors which shall be discussed in the next section (‘Opportunities’).
Significant non-current and current liabilities
The significant non-current and current liabilities have been addressed in the previous section. It has been determined that they pose no threat to immediate cash flow due to them being long-term in nature (e.g. decommissioning costs, deferred tax, etc). Hence, for the purpose of assessing going concern, their amounts should not be a cause for concern.
Potential issuance of equity
Finally, we come to the possibility of external financing being required in this low oil price environment. While the company should last 3-4 years on existing cash reserves, there is always the risk of other black swan events materializing (e.g. coronavirus) or simply oil prices remaining muted for longer than 4 years.
Furthermore, management has hinted that they wish to acquire new oil assets at presently depressed prices to increase daily production rate to a targeted 20,000 bbl by end-2021. They have room to acquire debt, but they may also wish to issue equity for this purpose. Hence, the possibility of dilution to existing shareholders cannot be entirely ruled out.
However, given management’s historical track record of prioritizing ROI and optimal capital allocation, and in consideration of the fact that the MD owns 10% of outstanding shares, there is some assurance that any potential acquisitions will be accretive to EPS and therefore valuations.

Opportunities

As with the existence of risk, the presence of material opportunities also looms over the company. Some of them are discussed below:
· Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
· Inclusion of 2C Resources
· Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
The first and most obvious opportunity is the potential for increased production rate. We’ve seen in the last quarter (2Q21) that the North Sabah field increased its daily production rate by approximately 20% as a result of production enhancement projects (infill drilling), lowering OPEX/bbl as a result. To vastly oversimplify, infill drilling is the process of maximizing well density by drilling in the spaces between existing wells to improve oil production.
The same improvements are being undertaken at the Anasuria field via infill drilling, subsea debottlenecking, water injection and sidetracking of existing wells. Without boring you with industry jargon, this basically means future production rate is likely to improve going forward.
By how much can the oil production rate be improved by? Management estimates in their analyst presentation that enhancements in the Anasuria field will be able to yield 5,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 2,500 bbl/day).
Similarly, improvements in the North Sabah field is expected to yield 7,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 5,300 bbl/day).
This implies a total 2021 expected daily production rate from the two fields alone of 12,000 bbl/day (current: 8,000 bbl/day). That’s a 50% increase in yields which we haven’t factored into our valuation yet.
Furthermore, we haven’t considered any production from existing 2C resources (e.g. Marigold/Sunflower) or any potential acquisitions which may occur in the future. By management estimates, this can potentially increase production by another 8,000 bbl/day, bringing total production to 20,000 bbl/day.
While this seems like a stretch of the imagination, it pays to keep them in mind when forecasting future revenues and valuations.
Just to play around with the numbers, I’ve come up with a sensitivity analysis of possible annual EBITDA at different oil prices and daily oil production rates:
Table 2: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and daily oil production rates
https://preview.redd.it/jnpfhr5n9br41.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbe4b512bc17f576d87529651140cc74cde3d159
The left column represents different oil prices while the top row represents different daily oil production rates.
The green column represents EBITDA at current daily production rate of 8,000 bbl/day; the orange column represents EBITDA at targeted daily production rate of 12,000 bbl/day; while the purple column represents EBITDA at maximum daily production rate of 20,000 bbl/day.
Even conservatively assuming increased estimated annual ITDA of RM 500m (FY20: RM 318m), and long-term average oil prices of $50 (FY20: $60), the estimated Net Profit and P/E ratio is potentially lucrative at daily oil production rates of 12,000 bbl/day and above.
2C Resources
Since we’re on the topic of improved daily oil production rate, it bears to pay in mind the relatively enormous potential from Hibiscus’s 2C Resources. North Sabah’s 2C Resources alone exceed 30 mmbbl; while those from the yet undiagnosed Marigold/Sunflower fields also reach 30 mmbbl. Altogether, 2C Resources exceed 70 mmbbl, which dwarfs the 44 mmbbl of 2P Reserves we have considered up to this point in our valuation estimates.
To refresh your memory, 2C Resources represents oil volumes which have been discovered but are not yet classified as “commercial”. This means that there is reasonable certainty of the oil being recoverable, as opposed to simply being in the very early stages of exploration. So, to be conservative, we will imagine that only 50% of 2C Resources are eligible for reclassification to 2P reserves, i.e. 35 mmbbl of oil.
https://preview.redd.it/mto11iz7abr41.png?width=375&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9028ab0816b3d3e25067447f2c70acd3ebfc41a
This additional 35 mmbbl of oil represents an 80% increase to existing 2P reserves. Assuming the daily oil production rate increases similarly by 80%, we will arrive at 14,400 bbl/day of oil production. According to Table 2 above, this would yield an EBITDA of roughly RM 630m assuming $50 oil.
Comparing that estimated EBITDA to FY20’s actual EBITDA:
FY20 FY21 (incl. 2C) Difference
Daily oil production (bbl/day) 8,626 14,400 +66%
Average oil price (USD/bbl) $68.57 $50 -27%
Average OPEX/bbl (USD) $16.64 $20 +20%
EBITDA (RM ‘m) 632 630 -
Hence, even conservatively assuming lower oil prices and higher OPEX/bbl (which should decrease in the presence of higher oil volumes) than last year, we get approximately the same EBITDA as FY20.
For the sake of completeness, let’s assume that Hibiscus issues twice the no. of existing shares over the next 10 years, effectively diluting shareholders by 50%. Even without accounting for the possibility of the acquisition of new oil fields, at the current market capitalization of RM 714m, the prospective P/E would be about 10x. Not too shabby.
Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Hibiscus shares have recently been hit by a one-two punch from oil prices cratering from $60 to $30, as a result of both the Saudi-Russian dispute and depressed demand for oil due to coronavirus. This has massively increased supply and at the same time hugely depressed demand for oil (due to the globally coordinated lockdowns being implemented).
Given a long enough timeframe, I fully expect OPEC+ to come to an agreement and the economic effects from the coronavirus to dissipate, allowing oil prices to rebound. As we equity investors are aware, oil prices are cyclical and are bound to recover over the next 10 years.
When it does, valuations of O&G stocks (including Hibiscus’s) are likely to improve as investors overshoot expectations and begin to forecast higher oil prices into perpetuity, as they always tend to do in good times. When that time arrives, Hibiscus’s valuations are likely to become overoptimistic as all O&G stocks tend to do during oil upcycles, resulting in valuations far exceeding reasonable estimates of future earnings. If you can hold the shares up until then, it’s likely you will make much more on your investment than what we’ve been estimating.

Conclusion

Wrapping up what we’ve discussed so far, we can conclude that Hibiscus’s market capitalization of RM 714m far undershoots reasonable estimates of fair value even under conservative assumptions of recoverable oil volumes and long-term average oil prices. As a value investor, I hesitate to assign a target share price, but it’s safe to say that this stock is worth at least RM 1.00 (current: RM 0.45). Risk is relatively contained and the upside far exceeds the downside. While I have no opinion on the short-term trajectory of oil prices, I can safely recommend this stock as a long-term Buy based on fundamental research.
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too good to be true

too good to be true
So this is from the optionsprofit calculator and i need to ask a question,
I trade for many years stocks and crypto, also some forex.
The image you see is $TWTR stock, so you meant to tell me if i buy a call option and TWTR price goes to 44$(10% increase in price) i win 465% of my investment and the only thing i can loose is my original investment i deposited ???
You cant get stopped out (no scammy stop-losses ). You cant get liquidated or margin called like in other markets and you can close the trade whenever you want.
This is too good to be true, can anyone explain?
https://preview.redd.it/s9mfwp1a19i41.jpg?width=739&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=33a8e987bc99488713aa7bcd9e118558d5170883
submitted by pol1010 to options [link] [comments]

How to Create a Forex Trading Strategy Alfa Financials

How to Create a Forex Trading Strategy Alfa Financials
How to Create a Forex Trading Strategy?

The word ‘Strategy’ itself is intimidating to novice traders as there are no foolproof techniques to create a flawless strategy. You might have a tight grip over the concepts of trading, but that doesn’t come in handy when creating a strategy. So, here are the basics to help you create a strategy.
Step 1: Identify the trader in you The first factor to consider before developing a trading strategy is the time frame in which you can trade. In Forex trading, you can trade at your convenience, but sticking to a routine will help you make an effective strategy. Day traders are those who can spend most of their time reading charts and numbers. They make over a dozen trades in a day. Swing traders hold on to a stock for a few days, and the time they spend is only to keep themselves up to date.
Step 2: Foresee the trend The better you know the trend, the better are your chances of profit. The trend is the way in which the market moves. Remember, you can make profits from both uptrend and downtrend. The moving average is one of the simple ways to identify the trend. There are a number of chart analysis indicators which can help you confirm the trend.
Step 3: Workout the risk A good trader is always calculative of his risks. Know how much you can spare for the trade and never dump everything you have in a single trade. Always be aware of what can happen when things don’t go your way. Your strategy should reflect on how much you can afford to lose in a trade and should get you out keeping your losses low.
Step 4: Determine your entry/exit points Your strategy should define when to enter a trade and when to exit. Some traders get out even with a marginal profit, while some tend to hold on to it longer. The charts can go either way, so know your entries & exits, and stick to your plan no matter what. Without calculating your entry & exit, it is easy to succumb to the disposition effect.
Step 5: Write it down and stick to it Once your well thought out strategy is ready, write it down and stick to it, at least for a considerable amount of time. Discipline plays an important role to not connect to your investments emotionally. A number of traders have lost a fortune stepping out of their strategy after giving in to emotions. There is no strategy to win your profits in every single trade, so feel the need to change & update your strategy according to the trend.
Alfa Financials offers a full suite of the best trading platform for beginners and professional traders. View our customized trader platforms, we are the trusted and experienced regulated online forex brokers for Forex, Futures, CFD and Currency Trading.
submitted by alfafinancials5 to u/alfafinancials5 [link] [comments]

share buying tips

Forex Margin Trading : a trading system where investors can trade at USD 100,000 but only use 1% guarantee is USD 1,000 . Forex Margin Trading is a form of investment in which the relatively small margin we can transact sell or buy currencies in the world with a high rate of return . Instruments traded in the forex market is a currency pair ( pair ) such as EURUSD , GBPUSD , USDJPY , AUDCHF , GBPJPY etc . Market Participants : Central Banks , Foreign Banks , Institutions Non Bank Financial ( Brokers , Insurance Companies , Investment Manager , etc. ) , Exporters / Importers, Traders Large , Investor ( Individual / Corporate ) share buying tips : Trading Forex Trading traded with Assurance System that has a main condition as follows: 1. Transactions carried out with a two-way Open BUY - SELL Close Open SELL - BUY Close 2. The investment fund is required only for WARRANT position open trade (Open BUY or SELL Open) and if the position of the trade has been closed (Close BUY or Close SELL), and may be in withdrawal or in traded back for the next transaction. 3. The purpose of the transaction is to gain of SPREADS buying and selling by the formula calculation of profit / loss. 4. Guarantee capital to trade starting from 1 - 10% or under the rules of account opening and regulations of Stock Index Futures Trading and Forex Trading. 5. Transactions carried out in standard units LOT with MINIMUM ot or multiples thereof. 6. Online Trading Transactions performed with Traders use Metaquotes Software Version 4:00 or 5:00 TAKORADI, Ghana
https://moneyonlineinvestment.com/\_/share\_buying\_tips/r346179\_Who-is-share-buying-tips/Ghana.html
submitted by Dellaly to u/Dellaly [link] [comments]

Commodity CFDS, Trading Commodities Tips For Beginners

Before you start talking of Commodity trading, you need to understand what Trading Commodities are.
Commodity trading is interesting as well as an advanced kind of investment. Although this form of forex trading has more or less similar characteristics to stock trading, the most critical difference is the property which is traded on this platform. Commodity trading concentrates on buying as well as trading commodities such as gold instead of firm stocks as in trading stocks.
Whenever trading in commodities in GO Markets, you will be it as a CFD; this means you are just trading the cost movement instead of the real commodity.
When you are trading CFDs as a first timer, there are a few tips that you must learn of course with the help of Go Market an online forex trading guru. Should you know these ideas, perhaps you might be able to trade forex confidently as well as stay away from the normal errors that novice forex traders make. In this review, we are going to learn tips on how to conduct a profitable commodity trading.
Make sure you get sufficient stock CFD trading training first. You will find a few fundamentals that you ought to know about on Go market, primary being the way to estimate margin needs as well as expenses of Commodity CFDs. Costs consist of commissions every way along with attention expenses. You have to know the way to calculate the costs so that you could calculate the efficiency of the systems.
Additionally, you must understand how margin calls a function to help you know what it implies as well as the way to tell when you are on the extremes of margin. Training may come from on the internet or even any nearby region regarding courses.
Learn how to trade forex an excellent system There are numerous systems available, for instance Mt4 Commodities; however, how will you assess how great a program is? You will need to know several requirements to evaluate a CFD technique for Commodity Trading. Knowing whatever they are then you may confirm if a CFD trading system is an excellent one. It is a key skill since you can evaluate any program, but when the details are not there, you definitely must request. Products differ from mechanical, discretionary, to necessary evaluation. These different kinds vary in system as well as short term trading to long-term buy as well as holds.
Learn to adhere to the guidelines correctly in your technique There are lots of guidelines in a program, ranging from causes of admission to avoid deficits to trailing deficits, etc. Should you never understand the instructions as well as precise reasons or the way to understand when they happen, mainly if these are discretionary, like support as well as resistance traces, chart patterns as well as congestion areas, you probably may get into Commodities Trading which has a low likelihood of success. Therefore exercise but when you can find all doubts, consult your tutor on if a chart pattern or even other signal is what you imagine it is.
There is much stuff that you need to understand before forex trading stock CFDs, commodity CFDs or even index CFDs. Therefore take them into thought as well as make sure to do your research as well as appreciate these areas of forex trading and more with the help of Go market an online forex trading guru.
For more details visit us: https://www.gomarkets.com.au/commodity-cfd-trading/
submitted by gomarkets01 to u/gomarkets01 [link] [comments]

Succeed As a FOREX Trader - Apply Discipline and an Automated Trading System, Such As the FAP Turbo

Also, you can put your stomach at ease because the Forex market usually is smooth and doesn't move as rapidly as stocks, for example. The Forex market is completely liquid and you can get your investment out at any time. You can play orders in a matter of seconds, and be on your way to profiting from the Forex market starting today.
The Parabolic SAR (Stop-And-Reverse) is a well-known technical indicator that can be founded in almost any trading platform nowadays. In this article we will describe various methods of using it for maximum profits.The Parabolic SAR is a unique trading indicator. Its uniqueness lies in the fact that it is one of the few indicators that directly take into account the time factor.
Most indicators focus their calculations on price and ignore time and volume, the Parabolic SAR takes time into the equation, attempting to reach more concrete signals. Another advantage of the Parabolic SAR is that it is highly objective, with very slim margin for personal interpretation. Its signals are clear and easy to understand.
The main methods of incorporating the Parabolic SAR into your trading are the following:The Parabolic can signal long and short trades. When its value is below price a long trade is signaled, and when its value is above - a short trade is issued. This is a standard trend-following system, yet it is also lagging and usually produce weak signals. Trader may try to adjust the settings to better fit the currency he or she trades, to improve the performance.

https://asrightasrain.co/physiotru-review/
https://forexprofitideas.com/numerologist-review/
https://forexprofitideas.com/fintech-mining-system-review/
https://forexprofitideas.com/algo-trading-reviews/
submitted by reginawilliam to u/reginawilliam [link] [comments]

Subreddit Stats: AskEconomics posts from 2018-09-23 to 2018-12-09 01:20 PDT

Period: 76.83 days
Submissions Comments
Total 982 5230
Rate (per day) 12.78 67.37
Unique Redditors 702 946
Combined Score 5730 16211

Top Submitters' Top Submissions

  1. 366 points, 45 submissions: benjaminikuta
    1. So, what's the difference between this new trade deal with Mexico and Canada and the old one, and what are the implications? (68 points, 12 comments)
    2. Do powerful unions increase wages above the optimal level, or do firms with market power cause imperfect competition in the labor market, causing sub optimal wages? (Or both?) (29 points, 2 comments)
    3. How do the salaries of high paid professionals compare between the US and various other developed countries? (28 points, 1 comment)
    4. Just how much more expensive is it to build on mountainous terrain than on flat land? How much more expensive would housing have to be before it's economical to develop the mountains of Hong Kong? (27 points, 5 comments)
    5. When it is said that someone in a third world country lives on a dollar a day, what does that actually mean? (25 points, 19 comments)
    6. How do economists measure unpaid work? (23 points, 8 comments)
    7. What's the economic effect of legal vs illegal immigration? (22 points, 10 comments)
    8. If someone saved enough money to live on investment income, could their descendants live off it indefinitely? (Assuming they don't spend the principle, reinvest to account for inflation, etc, of course.) (20 points, 46 comments)
    9. How effectively can negative externalities be quantified? (11 points, 7 comments)
    10. What are some common misconceptions about economics? (11 points, 19 comments)
  2. 134 points, 11 submissions: Fart_Gas
    1. Is free public transport a good idea? (42 points, 20 comments)
    2. What caused the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis? (31 points, 13 comments)
    3. Would it be more economical for supermarkets to slightly under-stock? (21 points, 12 comments)
    4. Will Venezuela's plummeting economy make it a good choice for low-wage industries? (20 points, 8 comments)
    5. What might cause sudden inflation? (7 points, 2 comments)
    6. Why do some countries without hyperinflation use a foreign currency in everyday life? (7 points, 3 comments)
    7. Has any country tried reducing the minimum wage, and ended up with a good result from it? (4 points, 8 comments)
    8. Is Ordoliberalism feasible for most poor and recently war-torn countries? (1 point, 0 comments)
    9. Why do some businesses sponsor sporting teams in countries they don't operate in, and that they don't plan to expand to in the foreseeable future? (1 point, 1 comment)
    10. Is it inevitable that certain areas will never recover from a war? If so, why? (0 points, 0 comments)
  3. 96 points, 5 submissions: MrZer
    1. Why do countries like France or Japan have a high debt to GDP but aren't in shambles like Greece? (43 points, 16 comments)
    2. Milton Friedman is well respected by many economists, why aren't there more Libertarians? (22 points, 18 comments)
    3. I've heard Marxists claim that central planning is good because the military and corporations do it. (20 points, 38 comments)
    4. Someone once said "Interest is what actually creates money. Without debt and interest, our economies would collapse." (7 points, 5 comments)
    5. What does it mean when people say China manipulates currency? (4 points, 7 comments)
  4. 83 points, 17 submissions: Whynvme
    1. Do economists actually calculate consumer surplus empirically, or is it more of s theoretical concept? (19 points, 5 comments)
    2. If we have cobb douglas preferences, my demand for x is not a function of the price of y. How do substitution effects arise then? (13 points, 6 comments)
    3. Is me making more money than I would necessarily require to work( so more than my 'opportunity wage') for a job an economic inefficiency? or is ineffiency in labor markets a wedge between my marginal revenue product and my wage? (11 points, 3 comments)
    4. some basic macro questions (6 points, 5 comments)
    5. understanding equilibrium in a dynamic context? (6 points, 1 comment)
    6. Trying to understand economies of scale, e.g. costco (5 points, 5 comments)
    7. Why does inflation necessarily mean wages will be increasing too? (5 points, 3 comments)
    8. question about equilibrium tax incidence (3 points, 1 comment)
    9. trying to understand the utility of theoretical models (3 points, 3 comments)
    10. when firms are earning short run economic profit, does that just mean all factors of production are earning more than their opportunity cost? so firms entering the industry = labor and capital reallocating towards that industry by forming new firms? (3 points, 1 comment)
  5. 65 points, 1 submission: imadeadinside
    1. If Bruce Wayne was revealed as Batman, would stock prices and sales skyrocket or plummet for Wayne Enterprises (65 points, 16 comments)
  6. 57 points, 2 submissions: csObsession
    1. Do most economists think political and economic freedoms are intrinsically tied together? How do they explain the success of extremely authoritarian capitalist governments (Singapore, China, South Korea, Chile)? (37 points, 25 comments)
    2. Why are salaries for professionals so much higher in the United States than other developed countries? (20 points, 34 comments)
  7. 53 points, 13 submissions: Experimentalphone
    1. Why do Information Technology workers are so high in demand and earn so much in Western countries but doesn't even get sustenance wage in Bangladesh? (30 points, 10 comments)
    2. Anyone know of a comprehensive list of all the sub disciplines one can do a PhD in Economics, Finance and Business? (6 points, 4 comments)
    3. Which PhD sub disciplines have the least math but still good employability prospects in academia and industry? (5 points, 19 comments)
    4. What is the best website to publish your working papers in Economics? (3 points, 4 comments)
    5. Do I have to prove factual assertions before providing my arguments on economic policy suggestions for a journal article? (2 points, 4 comments)
    6. Why is the Ready Made Garments industry of Bangladesh declining due to withdrawal of trade privileges of Western countries when prices are already competitive in the world market? (2 points, 1 comment)
    7. Are qualitative policy prescription papers accepted by most journals or are they better of in blog posts? (1 point, 7 comments)
    8. What is the best free website for working papers in Economics? (1 point, 3 comments)
    9. Where can I find data on work conditions and how hard is the work of foreign students who work alongside their studies legally or illegally? (1 point, 0 comments)
    10. Which metrics do I need, to find out the effects of outward remittance on a poor economy? (1 point, 5 comments)
  8. 52 points, 6 submissions: FrankVillain
    1. Is China still considered a centrally planned economy? (16 points, 4 comments)
    2. Ressources on the Soviet industrial failures due to poor economics? (15 points, 2 comments)
    3. What is the reason behind France's high unemployment rate? (10 points, 13 comments)
    4. About Land Value Tax & Single Tax: how would it affect farmers and those of them who own their land? (9 points, 3 comments)
    5. Does welfare policies contribute to inflation? (2 points, 1 comment)
    6. If a Bitcoin is worth $1 000 000 and some persons like Satoshi have one or more millions of it... what power do they have? Can they disrupt the financial system with the huge amount of dollars that they have? (0 points, 8 comments)
  9. 49 points, 9 submissions: Chumbaka
    1. Can someone explain M0 , M1 and M2 to me? (13 points, 2 comments)
    2. Why is inflation and deflation bad? (13 points, 8 comments)
    3. Can anyone explain why this happens and what it means? (10 points, 3 comments)
    4. Stupid question but : Why does printing lots of money lead to inflation? (5 points, 14 comments)
    5. Why aren't all banks Full Reserve Banking? (5 points, 3 comments)
    6. What does this stock market fall mean to the economy as a whole? (3 points, 4 comments)
    7. How do I pick an economist ideology to support? (0 points, 3 comments)
    8. Is investing in Forex worth it? (0 points, 15 comments)
    9. What is Fractional Reserve Banking? (0 points, 4 comments)
  10. 47 points, 1 submission: furikakebabe
    1. The Tax Bill of 2017 reduced corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. Tax haven countries have rates as low as 15%. Why would companies be more likely to move money back to the US if they still aren’t getting a better rate? (47 points, 6 comments)
  11. 47 points, 1 submission: gh0bs
    1. Why does the economy have to be a series of bubbles and bursts/corrections, rather than a sustained gradual growth? (47 points, 32 comments)
  12. 45 points, 1 submission: wcoleman22
    1. For all the economists out there that got advanced degrees, what were your most influential assigned readings? (45 points, 23 comments)
  13. 43 points, 1 submission: Crane_Train
    1. How could Venezuela fix its economy? (43 points, 17 comments)
  14. 42 points, 4 submissions: Jollygood156
    1. Why didn't quantitative easing + low interest rates raise inflation high? (20 points, 36 comments)
    2. How do we actually refute MMT? (12 points, 69 comments)
    3. What is Nominal GDP targeting and why do so many people advocate for it? (6 points, 16 comments)
    4. How exactly are land value taxes calculated? (4 points, 3 comments)
  15. 42 points, 1 submission: kornork
    1. With Soybeans piling up and a 12 Billion bailout from the trade war, how come tofu isn’t super cheap right now? (42 points, 3 comments)
  16. 41 points, 1 submission: TheHoleInMoi
    1. Are there any papers/solid arguments about the benefits of having more local business as opposed to corporate consolidation? (41 points, 2 comments)
  17. 39 points, 1 submission: infernomedia
    1. What are some of the most interesting results in economics that are widely well regarded by the academic community to come out in the last decade? (39 points, 7 comments)
  18. 38 points, 1 submission: -reasonable-person-
    1. From an Economic Perspective What is the Most Effective Way for Mexico to end its Violent Organized Crime Problem? (38 points, 13 comments)
  19. 38 points, 1 submission: ajsox22
    1. Does culture impact the growth and development of a nation's economy? (38 points, 15 comments)
  20. 37 points, 8 submissions: MedStudent-96
    1. Quasi-convexity of the Indirect Utility Function? (12 points, 14 comments)
    2. Is my textbook wrong? (9 points, 8 comments)
    3. Interpretation of Lagrange Multipliers for Consumer (5 points, 4 comments)
    4. Consumer Demand Interpretation for Cobb Douglas-Non Convex to Origin. (4 points, 6 comments)
    5. Do monopolies produce the same as a competitive firm in the long run? (4 points, 8 comments)
    6. In some circumstances can a monopoly leave the consumer better off? (1 point, 3 comments)
    7. Two Period Consumption Savings Model (1 point, 3 comments)
    8. [General Equilibrium] Proving that in the limit case the core shrinks to the set of competitive equilibrium. (1 point, 0 comments)

Top Commenters

  1. BainCapitalist (2255 points, 571 comments)
  2. smalleconomist (1053 points, 307 comments)
  3. RobThorpe (853 points, 247 comments)
  4. Calvo_fairy (721 points, 146 comments)
  5. Cross_Keynesian (527 points, 126 comments)
  6. zzzzz94 (468 points, 83 comments)
  7. raptorman556 (334 points, 91 comments)
  8. Integralds (323 points, 51 comments)
  9. whyrat (298 points, 56 comments)
  10. MrDannyOcean (290 points, 48 comments)
  11. isntanywhere (263 points, 84 comments)
  12. benjaminikuta (249 points, 133 comments)
  13. penguin_rider222 (158 points, 40 comments)
  14. daokedao4 (148 points, 23 comments)
  15. lawrencekhoo (132 points, 13 comments)
  16. ecolonomist (129 points, 45 comments)
  17. RegulatoryCapture (126 points, 29 comments)
  18. intowilde (114 points, 28 comments)
  19. VineFynn (113 points, 30 comments)
  20. MedStudent-96 (103 points, 48 comments)

Top Submissions

  1. So, what's the difference between this new trade deal with Mexico and Canada and the old one, and what are the implications? by benjaminikuta (68 points, 12 comments)
  2. If Bruce Wayne was revealed as Batman, would stock prices and sales skyrocket or plummet for Wayne Enterprises by imadeadinside (65 points, 16 comments)
  3. Why does the economy have to be a series of bubbles and bursts/corrections, rather than a sustained gradual growth? by gh0bs (47 points, 32 comments)
  4. The Tax Bill of 2017 reduced corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. Tax haven countries have rates as low as 15%. Why would companies be more likely to move money back to the US if they still aren’t getting a better rate? by furikakebabe (47 points, 6 comments)
  5. For all the economists out there that got advanced degrees, what were your most influential assigned readings? by wcoleman22 (45 points, 23 comments)
  6. How could Venezuela fix its economy? by Crane_Train (43 points, 17 comments)
  7. Why do countries like France or Japan have a high debt to GDP but aren't in shambles like Greece? by MrZer (43 points, 16 comments)
  8. Is free public transport a good idea? by Fart_Gas (42 points, 20 comments)
  9. With Soybeans piling up and a 12 Billion bailout from the trade war, how come tofu isn’t super cheap right now? by kornork (42 points, 3 comments)
  10. Are there any papers/solid arguments about the benefits of having more local business as opposed to corporate consolidation? by TheHoleInMoi (41 points, 2 comments)

Top Comments

  1. 68 points: Calvo_fairy's comment in Milton Friedman is well respected by many economists, why aren't there more Libertarians?
  2. 62 points: Calvo_fairy's comment in Milton Friedman is well respected by many economists, why aren't there more Libertarians?
  3. 54 points: Calvo_fairy's comment in If Bruce Wayne was revealed as Batman, would stock prices and sales skyrocket or plummet for Wayne Enterprises
  4. 52 points: Qwernakus's comment in What is the difference between GDP (Nominal), GDP (PPP), and Real GDP ?
  5. 50 points: TheoryOfSomething's comment in Which parts of Marxism are theoretically dependent on the labor theory of value and which are not?
  6. 47 points: Lucid-Crow's comment in I've heard Marxists claim that central planning is good because the military and corporations do it.
  7. 46 points: Integralds's comment in Milton Friedman is well respected by many economists, why aren't there more Libertarians?
  8. 44 points: Yankee9204's comment in If Bruce Wayne was revealed as Batman, would stock prices and sales skyrocket or plummet for Wayne Enterprises
  9. 43 points: lawrencekhoo's comment in With Soybeans piling up and a 12 Billion bailout from the trade war, how come tofu isn’t super cheap right now?
  10. 42 points: Cross_Keynesian's comment in Does income inequality really matter?
Generated with BBoe's Subreddit Stats
submitted by subreddit_stats to subreddit_stats [link] [comments]

Getting Started

Hey guys! I found a super cool list of everything a new forex trader would need to get started! Originally made by to nate1357. Link to original thread http://redd.it/328cjr
Free Resources
Education:
www.babypips.com/school
www.informedtrades.com/f7
www.forex4noobs.com/forex-education
www.en.tradimo.com/learn/forex-trading
www.youtube.com/useTheTradeitsimple
www.traderscalm.com
www.orderflowtrading.com/LearnOrderFlow.aspx
www.profitube.com
Calendars:
www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
www.dailyfx.com/calendar
www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar
www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar
www.myfxbook.com/forex-economic-calendar
www.investing.com/economic-calendar
Free News Websites:
www.forexlive.com - Daily live news, analysis and resources
www.financemagnates.com - FX industry news and updates
www.fxstreet.com - Daily news, analysis and resources
www.forextell.com
www.forexcup.com/news
www.bloomberg.com/markets
Forums:
www.reddit.com/forex
www.forums.babypips.com/
www.forexfactory.com/forum.php
www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php
www.forex-tsd.com/
www.fxgears.com/forum/index.php
www.trade2win.com/boards
Margin / pip / position size calculators
www.myfxbook.com/forex-calculators
Brokerages:
There are many factors to consider when choosing a brokerage. Regulations typically force US traders to only trade at US brokerages, while international traders have more choice. After considering location you need to consider how much capital you will start trading with as many have minimum deposit levels. Once you’ve narrowed that down you can compared spreads and execution. ECN brokers execute your orders straight through to their liquidity providers, while market maker brokers may pair up your trades with other clients. Market maker brokers typically will partially hedge your positions on the interbank market. Many consider this to be a conflict of interest and prefer to trade at an ECN broker who would have an active motive to see you succeed. Lastly, brokers run inherently risky business models so it is important to consider the risk of bankruptcy.
www.forexpeacearmy.com - Aggregates broker reviews. Be warned though that people only seem to make bad reviews.
www.myfxbook.com/forex-broker-spreads - Live comparison of executable spreads
United States & International-
-Interactive Brokers
International Only-
-LMAX (whitelabel DarwinEx)
*DMA broker based in the UK. Note that as a DMA broker LMAX eliminates the ability for LPs to last-look transactions. This may result in reduced liquidity during volatile times as liquidity providers would be likely not to risk posting liquidity to LMAX's pool. *Tight spreads *Minimum deposit $10,000 *Fairly well diversified
-Dukascopy
*ECN based in Switzerland, but available elsewhere depending on local regulations.
*Tight spreads *Minimum deposit $100 *Fairly well diversified
-IC Markets *ECN based in Australia *Fair spreads on standard account, tight spreads on professional accounts. *Minimum deposit $200 *Fairly well diversified
-Pepperstone
*ECN broker based in Australia. *Fair spreads on standard account, tight spreads on professional accounts. *Minimum deposit $200 *Not well diversified
Software / Apps:
Desktop/mobile
Terminology/Acronyms:
www.forexlive.com/ForexJargon - Common terms and acronyms
FAQ:
I need to exchange money, how do I do it?
This isn’t what this sub is for. Your best bet is using your bank or an online exchange service. Be prepared to pay a hefty fee.
I have money in one currency and need to exchange it into another sometime in the future, should I wait?
Don’t ask us this. We speculate intraday in FX and shouldn’t be relied on to tell you what’s best for you. Exchange the money when you need it.
I have an FX account, should I start trading demo or live?
This is highly debatable. You should definitely demo trade until you have mastered how to use the trading platform on desktop and mobile. After that it’s up to you. Many think that the psychology of trading live vs demo trading is massively different. So it may pay to learn to trade live. Just be warned that most FX traders lose almost their entire first account so start with a low affordable balance.
What’s money management?
Money management is a form of risk management and is arguably the most important aspect of your trading when it comes to long term survival. You should always enter trades with a stop loss - the distance of the stop allows you to calculate how large of a percent of your account balance will be lost if your trade stops out. You can run a monte carlo simulation to figure out the risk of having a number of trades go against you in a row to drain your account. The general rule is that you should only risk losing 1-4% of your account per trade entered.
More on this here: www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/fxmoneymgmt.asp[35]
www.swing-trade-stocks.com/money-management.html[36]
What about automated trading?
Retail FX traders have been known to program “Expert Advisors” (EAs) to automate trading. It’s generally advisable to stay away from that until you’re very experienced. Never buy an EA from a developer because the vast majority of them are scams.
What indicators are best?
That’s up to you to test and find out. Many in this forum dislike oscillating indicators since they fail to capture the essence of what moves price. With experience you will discover what works best for you. In my experience indicators that are most popular with professional traders are those that provide trading “levels” such as pivot points, fibonacci, moving averages, trendlines, etc.
What timeframe should I trade?
Price action can vary in different timeframes. In longer term timeframes the price action and fundamentals are much more clear. Unfortunately it would take a very long time to figure out whether or not what you’re doing is successful on longer timeframes. In shorter timeframes you can often tell very quickly if what you’re doing is profitable. Unfortunately there’s a lot more “noise” on these levels which can prove deceptive for those trying to learn. Therefore the best bet is to use a multi-timeframe analysis, working from top-down to come up with trades.
Should I trade using fundamental analysis (FA) of technical analysis (TA)?
This is a long standing argument in these forums and elsewhere. I’ll settle it here - you should have an understanding of both. Yes there are traders who blindly ignore one of the other but a truly well rounded trader should understand and implement both into the analysis. The market is driven in the longer term through FA. But TA is necessary to give traders a place to enter and exit trades from a psychological risk/reward standpoint.
I’ve heard trading Binary Options is an easy way to make money?
The general advice is to stay away from binaries. The structure of binary options is so that when you lose the broker wins. This incentive has created a very scammy industry where there are few legitimate binary options brokers. In addition in order to be profitable in binaries you have to win 55-65% of the time. That’s a much higher premium over spot FX.
Am I actually exchanging currencies?
Yes and no. Your broker handles spot FX is currency pairs. Although they make an exchange at the settlement date they treat your position in your account as a virtual currency pair. Think of it like a contract where you can only buy or sell it as a pair. In this sense you are always long one currency while short another. You are merely speculating that one currency will appreciate or depreciate vs another.
Why didn't my order fill?
Even if price appears to cross over a line on your chart it does not guarantee a fill. Different charting platforms chart different prices - some chart the bid price, some the ask price and some the midpoint price. To fill a limit order price needs to cross your limit's price plus the spread at the time that it is crossing. If it does not equal or exceed the spread then it will not fill. Be wary that in general spreads are not fixed. So what may fill at one time may not at another.
submitted by ClassicalAnt6 to TeamOceanSky [link] [comments]

Subreddit Stats: AskEconomics posts from 2018-08-22 to 2018-11-12 07:20 PDT

Period: 82.02 days
Submissions Comments
Total 979 6319
Rate (per day) 11.94 76.69
Unique Redditors 688 1060
Combined Score 5907 19076

Top Submitters' Top Submissions

  1. 322 points, 37 submissions: benjaminikuta
    1. So, what's the difference between this new trade deal with Mexico and Canada and the old one, and what are the implications? (71 points, 12 comments)
    2. The EU is considering making product life expectancy a mandatory piece of info for consumer electronics. What would the economic implications of that be? (64 points, 24 comments)
    3. Do powerful unions increase wages above the optimal level, or do firms with market power cause imperfect competition in the labor market, causing sub optimal wages? (Or both?) (27 points, 3 comments)
    4. How do economists measure unpaid work? (24 points, 8 comments)
    5. When it is said that someone in a third world country lives on a dollar a day, what does that actually mean? (22 points, 19 comments)
    6. What are some common misconceptions about economics? (14 points, 19 comments)
    7. What would be a better alternative to Bernie's proposal to tax employers of welfare recipients? (14 points, 65 comments)
    8. How effectively can negative externalities be quantified? (10 points, 7 comments)
    9. To what degree has the internet increased the liquidity of the labor market? (7 points, 3 comments)
    10. What happened with the Greek economic crisis? (7 points, 5 comments)
  2. 146 points, 30 submissions: Whynvme
    1. When economists refer to industrialization, does it mean a move from agricultural to manufacturing economy? Is the growth in services a different term? (22 points, 6 comments)
    2. Do economists actually calculate consumer surplus empirically, or is it more of s theoretical concept? (20 points, 5 comments)
    3. If we have cobb douglas preferences, my demand for x is not a function of the price of y. How do substitution effects arise then? (11 points, 6 comments)
    4. Is me making more money than I would necessarily require to work( so more than my 'opportunity wage') for a job an economic inefficiency? or is ineffiency in labor markets a wedge between my marginal revenue product and my wage? (11 points, 3 comments)
    5. why is ceteris paribus important for analyzing/thinking about the world? (11 points, 7 comments)
    6. Why does inflation necessarily mean wages will be increasing too? (6 points, 3 comments)
    7. some basic macro questions (6 points, 2 comments)
    8. what is meant by value added? (6 points, 3 comments)
    9. Trying to understand economies of scale, e.g. costco (5 points, 5 comments)
    10. Why would an economy implode long term if there are decreasing returns to scale? (5 points, 15 comments)
  3. 95 points, 2 submissions: MrDannyOcean
    1. Announcing a new policy direction for /AskEconomics (75 points, 135 comments)
    2. The new rules for AskEconomics are now in place. Please see the details within. (20 points, 20 comments)
  4. 79 points, 7 submissions: Fart_Gas
    1. Is free public transport a good idea? (41 points, 20 comments)
    2. Will Venezuela's plummeting economy make it a good choice for low-wage industries? (17 points, 8 comments)
    3. What might cause sudden inflation? (8 points, 2 comments)
    4. Why do some countries without hyperinflation use a foreign currency in everyday life? (8 points, 3 comments)
    5. Has any country tried reducing the minimum wage, and ended up with a good result from it? (3 points, 8 comments)
    6. Do boycotts really work? (1 point, 3 comments)
    7. Why do some businesses sponsor sporting teams in countries they don't operate in, and that they don't plan to expand to in the foreseeable future? (1 point, 1 comment)
  5. 66 points, 7 submissions: FrankVillain
    1. Can the Euro become the global currency for trade? (17 points, 3 comments)
    2. Is China still considered a centrally planned economy? (16 points, 4 comments)
    3. Ressources on the Soviet industrial failures due to poor economics? (14 points, 2 comments)
    4. What is the reason behind France's high unemployment rate? (9 points, 14 comments)
    5. About Land Value Tax & Single Tax: how would it affect farmers and those of them who own their land? (7 points, 3 comments)
    6. Does welfare policies contribute to inflation? (2 points, 1 comment)
    7. If a Bitcoin is worth $1 000 000 and some persons like Satoshi have one or more millions of it... what power do they have? Can they disrupt the financial system with the huge amount of dollars that they have? (1 point, 8 comments)
  6. 66 points, 1 submission: imadeadinside
    1. If Bruce Wayne was revealed as Batman, would stock prices and sales skyrocket or plummet for Wayne Enterprises (66 points, 16 comments)
  7. 64 points, 6 submissions: Serpenthrope
    1. Have there been any serious proposals for economic systems that don't use money? (23 points, 67 comments)
    2. Could a company ever become quality-control for a market in which they're competing, assuming no government interference? (16 points, 4 comments)
    3. Is there a formal name for this? (15 points, 6 comments)
    4. Why are second-hand clothing donations fundamentally different from other types of imports? (5 points, 1 comment)
    5. I saw this article on a UN report calling for the dismantling of Capitalism to stop Global Warming, and was wondering what most economists think of the claims? (3 points, 4 comments)
    6. Peter Navarro and Lyndon Larouche? (2 points, 1 comment)
  8. 62 points, 2 submissions: JeffGotSwags
    1. What are the most commonly held misconceptions about economics among people with at least some background? (36 points, 38 comments)
    2. How did the financial crisis affect the demand for economists? (26 points, 5 comments)
  9. 61 points, 11 submissions: Chumbaka
    1. Can someone explain M0 , M1 and M2 to me? (13 points, 2 comments)
    2. Can anyone explain why this happens and what it means? (11 points, 3 comments)
    3. Can a monopoly also be a monopsony? (10 points, 13 comments)
    4. Why is inflation and deflation bad? (10 points, 8 comments)
    5. Stupid question but : Why does printing lots of money lead to inflation? (5 points, 14 comments)
    6. Why aren't all banks Full Reserve Banking? (5 points, 3 comments)
    7. What does this stock market fall mean to the economy as a whole? (4 points, 4 comments)
    8. How would an universal free market deal with situations like NK? (3 points, 21 comments)
    9. How do I pick an economist ideology to support? (0 points, 3 comments)
    10. Is investing in Forex worth it? (0 points, 15 comments)
  10. 60 points, 6 submissions: Jollygood156
    1. Why didn't quantitative easing + low interest rates raise inflation high? (20 points, 36 comments)
    2. How do we actually refute MMT? (14 points, 68 comments)
    3. Tax Cuts boost Consumption, but the growth is short term while investments are long term. Why? (12 points, 7 comments)
    4. How exactly are land value taxes calculated? (6 points, 3 comments)
    5. What is Nominal GDP targeting and why do so many people advocate for it? (5 points, 16 comments)
    6. What even is Austerity? (3 points, 3 comments)
  11. 49 points, 1 submission: Akehc99
    1. Those who went into the job market after an Econ Undergrad, what do you do and briefly what does it entail? (49 points, 27 comments)
  12. 48 points, 1 submission: Traveledfarwestward
    1. What do most Economists think about The Economist? (48 points, 26 comments)
  13. 48 points, 1 submission: piltonpfizerwallace
    1. What would happen if the US printed $12.3 trillion tomorrow and paid off all of its debt? (48 points, 31 comments)
  14. 47 points, 6 submissions: lalze123
    1. Will Bernie's "STOP BEZOS" plan lower the opportunity cost of hiring non-poor workers, thereby harming poor workers? (19 points, 15 comments)
    2. What does the current economic literature say about the effects of net neutrality? (14 points, 0 comments)
    3. What government programs have been empirically proven to help displaced workers from import competition? (8 points, 0 comments)
    4. By how much does lowering the budget deficit lower the trade deficit? (5 points, 4 comments)
    5. What are some good studies analyzing the difference in efficiency between markets and central planning? (1 point, 1 comment)
    6. Is the study below reliable? (0 points, 3 comments)
  15. 45 points, 1 submission: gh0bs
    1. Why does the economy have to be a series of bubbles and bursts/corrections, rather than a sustained gradual growth? (45 points, 32 comments)
  16. 42 points, 1 submission: Turnt_Up_For_What
    1. You've just been declared supreme potentate of Venezuela. Now how do you fix the economy? (42 points, 24 comments)
  17. 41 points, 1 submission: Crane_Train
    1. How could Venezuela fix its economy? (41 points, 19 comments)
  18. 41 points, 1 submission: TheHoleInMoi
    1. Are there any papers/solid arguments about the benefits of having more local business as opposed to corporate consolidation? (41 points, 2 comments)
  19. 39 points, 5 submissions: UyhAEqbnp
    1. Does income inequality really matter? (19 points, 39 comments)
    2. What happens when there's a surplus of labour? Can there ever be a point where the wages earned are less than the cost of living? (10 points, 2 comments)
    3. Several questions (4 points, 4 comments)
    4. "Keeping seniors from retiring does not boost wages via aggregate demand" (3 points, 5 comments)
    5. Is Okun's Law valid? (3 points, 3 comments)
  20. 39 points, 4 submissions: justinVOLuntary
    1. Best resource on the financial crisis of 2008 (17 points, 7 comments)
    2. Blogs? (11 points, 5 comments)
    3. Econ Internship (7 points, 5 comments)
    4. Not sure if this is the kind of question I should be asking here. I’m an Undergrad Econ major and I’m looking for reading recommendations. Anything from economic theory, history, current research, etc. Main interest is Macro. Thanks (4 points, 5 comments)
  21. 39 points, 2 submissions: ConditionalDew
    1. How much would the iPhone be if it was made in the US? (37 points, 15 comments)
    2. Who are some famous people/celebrities that were economics majors? (2 points, 2 comments)
  22. 39 points, 1 submission: rangerlinks
    1. Who are the best economist to follow on Twitter? (39 points, 16 comments)
  23. 36 points, 5 submissions: CanadianAsshole1
    1. If free trade is so good, then why do countries insist on making trade deals? Why can't we just abolish all tariffs? (18 points, 11 comments)
    2. If climate change is such a huge problem, then why aren't countries utilizing nuclear energy more? (8 points, 17 comments)
    3. Do I understand the problem with"trickle-down" economics correctly? (6 points, 38 comments)
    4. How much of the Reagan administration's deficits could be attributed to increased defense spending? (3 points, 3 comments)
    5. If automation will result in less jobs, then shouldn't the government stop incentivizing childbirth through tax credits and stop immigration? (1 point, 12 comments)
  24. 35 points, 7 submissions: MedStudent-96
    1. Is my textbook wrong? (11 points, 8 comments)
    2. Quasi-convexity of the Indirect Utility Function? (9 points, 14 comments)
    3. Consumer Demand Interpretation for Cobb Douglas-Non Convex to Origin. (4 points, 6 comments)
    4. Do monopolies produce the same as a competitive firm in the long run? (4 points, 8 comments)
    5. Interpretation of Lagrange Multipliers for Consumer (4 points, 4 comments)
    6. Optimisation when MRTS > price ratio (2 points, 7 comments)
    7. Help with the Partial Derivative of the Marginal Cost Function. (1 point, 10 comments)
  25. 35 points, 1 submission: grate1438
    1. Why do Croatians receieve so much more through their pension than their working wage? (35 points, 8 comments)

Top Commenters

  1. BainCapitalist (2626 points, 648 comments)
  2. Calvo_fairy (947 points, 232 comments)
  3. smalleconomist (885 points, 255 comments)
  4. RobThorpe (776 points, 259 comments)
  5. zzzzz94 (577 points, 111 comments)
  6. Cross_Keynesian (520 points, 108 comments)
  7. Integralds (418 points, 68 comments)
  8. penguin_rider222 (395 points, 116 comments)
  9. whyrat (362 points, 69 comments)
  10. bbqroast (319 points, 74 comments)
  11. MrDannyOcean (314 points, 54 comments)
  12. isntanywhere (207 points, 63 comments)
  13. RedditUser91805 (189 points, 28 comments)
  14. CapitalismAndFreedom (176 points, 68 comments)
  15. benjaminikuta (171 points, 112 comments)
  16. LucasCritique (162 points, 33 comments)
  17. raptorman556 (157 points, 44 comments)
  18. lawrencekhoo (156 points, 22 comments)
  19. daokedao4 (131 points, 16 comments)
  20. Yankee9204 (121 points, 15 comments)
  21. roboczar (112 points, 20 comments)
  22. RegulatoryCapture (109 points, 23 comments)
  23. ecolonomist (105 points, 45 comments)
  24. TheoryOfSomething (102 points, 9 comments)
  25. Forgot_the_Jacobian (97 points, 31 comments)

Top Submissions

  1. Announcing a new policy direction for /AskEconomics by MrDannyOcean (75 points, 135 comments)
  2. So, what's the difference between this new trade deal with Mexico and Canada and the old one, and what are the implications? by benjaminikuta (71 points, 12 comments)
  3. If Bruce Wayne was revealed as Batman, would stock prices and sales skyrocket or plummet for Wayne Enterprises by imadeadinside (66 points, 16 comments)
  4. The EU is considering making product life expectancy a mandatory piece of info for consumer electronics. What would the economic implications of that be? by benjaminikuta (64 points, 24 comments)
  5. Those who went into the job market after an Econ Undergrad, what do you do and briefly what does it entail? by Akehc99 (49 points, 27 comments)
  6. What would happen if the US printed $12.3 trillion tomorrow and paid off all of its debt? by piltonpfizerwallace (48 points, 31 comments)
  7. What do most Economists think about The Economist? by Traveledfarwestward (48 points, 26 comments)
  8. Why does the economy have to be a series of bubbles and bursts/corrections, rather than a sustained gradual growth? by gh0bs (45 points, 32 comments)
  9. What is the difference in knowledge between academic economists(Krugman, Acemoglu, Mankiw etc) and hedge fund managers and the like(Soros, James Simons)? by deleted (43 points, 5 comments)
  10. You've just been declared supreme potentate of Venezuela. Now how do you fix the economy? by Turnt_Up_For_What (42 points, 24 comments)

Top Comments

  1. 62 points: Calvo_fairy's comment in Milton Friedman is well respected by many economists, why aren't there more Libertarians?
  2. 62 points: Calvo_fairy's comment in Milton Friedman is well respected by many economists, why aren't there more Libertarians?
  3. 59 points: RedditUser91805's comment in The EU is considering making product life expectancy a mandatory piece of info for consumer electronics. What would the economic implications of that be?
  4. 58 points: arctigos's comment in What do most Economists think about The Economist?
  5. 55 points: hbtn's comment in Why are Little Caesar's cheese pizzas the same price as its pepperoni pizzas?
  6. 54 points: Calvo_fairy's comment in Could someone explain the wage gap and whether it's a myth or not.
  7. 51 points: Calvo_fairy's comment in If Bruce Wayne was revealed as Batman, would stock prices and sales skyrocket or plummet for Wayne Enterprises
  8. 51 points: RedditUser91805's comment in You've just been declared supreme potentate of Venezuela. Now how do you fix the economy?
  9. 51 points: smalleconomist's comment in What are the most commonly held misconceptions about economics among people with at least some background?
  10. 49 points: TheoryOfSomething's comment in Which parts of Marxism are theoretically dependent on the labor theory of value and which are not?
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Fundamentals of Trading

Fundamentals of Trading submitted by Enrich_Broking to u/Enrich_Broking [link] [comments]

ICO AZBIT ANNOUNCES PUBLIC SALE OF AZS SECURITY TOKENS

https://preview.redd.it/a74n2doanf311.jpg?width=320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7b200ceaee4c791864f4ed67622f3f3f5b0b0870
From 14–16 May, New York hosted the Consensus 2018 blockchain technology summit, and the Azbit Limited team attended as one of the main sponsors. We had a large booth centrally located within the exhibition space. The Azbit trade and investment financial ecosystem announced a Pre-ICO round, to run from 1–31 July.

ICO

The Azbit project has been under EU jurisdiction from the start, and the Azbit Shares (AZS) token issued in the ICO will be a security token. In total, 4,300,000,000 AZS will be issued. For all the project’s investors, these tokens will act like stocks, and the calculations of their dividends from the ecosystem’s operations will be based on them.
At the same time, the Azbit utility token (AZ) will serve as an internal means to make payments and receive discounts. This distinction will make it possible to avoid legal wranglings over the functional purpose of our tokens. The platform will gradually buy back and subsequently destroy the AZ tokens.
A Pre-ICO bounty of from 5 to 2 percent will be available.

THE AZBIT PLATFORM

The platform aims to bring tried and tested financial trading and investment instruments to the cryptocurrency industry through Azbit’s unified ecosystem.
The Azbit platform’s core features will include:
Cryptocurrency exchanges
The Azbit platform will have two cryptocurrency exchanges:
Investment platform
One of the key features of the Azbit platform is an investment platform offering a system for traders and investors to interact. Users will have access to the following trading and investment instruments that are proven and popular in the forex market:
Bank
The Bank’s basic role is to support all the Azbit ecosystem services, reduce internal operating expenses and increase profit.
Having a single ecosystem will mean faster and less expensive KYC procedures, and will also make it cheaper to deposit and withdraw fiat currencies in these services.
Electronic payment system
Our own e-payment system will provide support and processing for all the Azbit platform’s online and cryptocurrency payments.
Users will be able to trade under the exchange and work with fiat currencies through the bank, and to make all their payments with Azbit’s unified financial ecosystem — quickly, inexpensively and securely.

MVP

The features of the Azbit exchange will make use of the existing features of the Bitsane platform (Main Core / Datastore, Order processing cluster: internal matching engine, external matching engine).
To attract more new clients, the Azbit team has put together a partner program. The project’s partners will be able to receive up to 10% of the amount of investment raised, in tokens or ETH.
Source
submitted by W12io to u/W12io [link] [comments]

How to calculate the margin and pip value of CFDs (such as Stock Index), specially, Oanda CFD?

Hi all,
To extend my vision, I start studying CFDs, such as Stock Index, Oil, Commodity, etc. Unlike Forex, I don't understand how margin and pip value is calculated for Stock Index and other CFDs.
I tested with Oanda CFD, seems the margin for 1 unit UK 100 is about $10000, and 1 unit Brent Crude Oil is about $50. Seems the margin for BCO is just the price of the oil, but how about the Stock Index, what's the price?
Thanks
EDIT: the margin I talked above is the total money required, not leveraged. And the leverage provided by Oanda is 50. So the leveraged margin for 1 unit BCO is only $1.
EDIT2: Though on Oanda forum nobody answered my question about what the multipliers are, eventually I realized for fxTrade the multipliers are just 1, but different conttacts are quoted in different currency. FTSE is quoted in GBP, so 1 contract value is 7000 GBP, which is about 10000 USD, which is exactly how I observed. And the pip value is always 1 quote currentcy. For FTSE, the pip value is 1 GBP, which is about 1.5 USD.
submitted by wqking to Forex [link] [comments]

[Table] IAmA full-time Bitcoin day-trader, blogger, and explainer. I was a pro TCG player. Here until Midnight EST. AMA!

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2014-02-20
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Questions Answers
Let's say someone was looking for a stay at home computer job, would you recommend doing what you do? Is it something you can hop into, or is it something a lot of time must be put into before considerable income comes? You handle risk and pressure well, and you don't let your emotions guide your decision-making. Professional Poker and TCG players often develop this skillset.
You have experience working with stocks, bonds, derivatives, foreign exchange, or other financial instruments. If you have a strong mathematical background, that would also likely fulfill this.
You can invest significant capital into trading while remaining financially secure if it all suddenly vanishes.
You are capable of constantly monitoring a situation, waking up in the middle of the night if an alarm goes off, etc. It requires serious dedication.
You are good at keeping up with news, understanding market psychology, and "feeling" shifts in attitude and perception among other market participants.
Of those, I'd be most cautious if you don't meet no. 3. Going bust is a real possibility--day-trading a volatile commodity is inherently extremely high-risk. Nos. 2 and 4 are the easiest to learn or force through routine. No. 1 requires a person who approaches things in an emotionally detached manner. No. 5 is something that comes with investing enough time.
Second question: I'm answering this after that big block of text because this answer will come off like a get-rich-quick scheme. Yes, you can hop into it very quickly, and you can start making very high profits very quickly. I put in a small initial investment to test the waters, and made 10% on it in a few days. If you have the right skillset, composure, and resources, yes. It is a potentially very lucrative and exciting stay-at-home job. It is not for everyone, though.
As much as it would be beneficial for me (being in the industry and all), to tell everyone it's easy and that it will help them provide for themselves I feel that people need to know the real risks that are involved. Regardless, that's all a little irrelevant. We're not playing the house, and we're not flipping coins. We're playing other investors, and we're making actual decisions. You keep saying things like "98% lose money" and "Go onto any FOREX forum, and you will see from the users posts that they pretty much all lose money" but you don't back it up. Cool, yeah, it's a zero-sum game with a rake: a little more than half of the players will lose. That's expected. They'll probably complain about it, too, huh?
Retrospect can have a very positive effect. Got any real account trading statements I can have a look at? Let's see how fast you can come up with excuses not to show me ;) I only have and need one: I have chosen not to disclose my personal valuation for privacy reasons. Same reason I've had all along. I instead publicly disclose my trades, as they happen, on my website. The posts are timestamped, and the ones that are the start of a position contain the price I entered at. Go check the posts, then go check the charts, then go check my archive. But feel free to continue to arbitrarily call my credibility into question--that makes your argument better!
What leverage do you use? In Australia the leverage is typically 100:1, perhaps that's why your not seeing how risky I deem it to be. First, our argument so far has had nothing to do with risk. Second, I told you I am leveraged 2.5:1, two posts ago. Third, you realize I'm trading Bitcoin, not ForEx, correct? And that no one in their right mind would offer 100:1 leverage on Bitcoin due to its volatility?
What's your last year's hourly salary? A year ago I was finishing up college and extricating myself from the TCG business I'd co-founded. I took very little in take-home pay over that period, but kept part ownership of the continuing business. Money isn't just about the number on your bank account--it's also about residual future income.
How many hours a week are you typically on a computer? On a computer, probably 50-55, if you add in time I spend on my phone, I'd say 65-70. Day trading takes constant watchfulness. I imagine it's like an easier version of taking care of a baby.
What are your favorite to sources of news besides waiting for it to get to the front/hot page of /Bitcoin when it's several hours old? I have an IFTTT for /BitcoinMarkets and /Bitcoin that notifies me early on about some posts.
What's the weirdest thing about your mom? She started a bookselling business online in her 50s and makes more money than me.
Or.
She's a little old lady who loves gadgets and technology.
What are your thoughts on Dogecoin and other bitcoin competitors? Do you think any have staying value? LTC.
DOGE.
NXT.
VTC.
Coins that offer something different or that have a strong community to them can be valuable prospects.
LTC is the first-mover scrypt coin - DOGE has the most non-techies interested in its success and is spreading quickly as a result - NXT is a cool generation two coin that has a lot of features BTC doesn't have - VTC is ASIC-resistant
Ok, let me spell it out to you. The retail forex market only makes up 5% of the total forex markets liquidity. The other 95% is from hedge funds and institutions. Therefore, 99% of the retail market losing their money is very possible, as that only makes up 4.95% of the whole market. Is it possible that 4.95% of the market generally loses? Yes. How is that infeasible? Nope. That's a false equivalence. It is possible that 4.95% of the market loses. It is not feasible, that, say, 99% of people with blue eyes lose. What, exactly, in empirical terms, is the difference between retail investors and hedge/institutions that causes this INCREDIBLE disparity? Would you care to respond to my above empirical argument that demonstrates that a zero-decision system is flipping a losing coin? Do you consider it feasible for 99% of people playing a 45-55 game to lose?
Are there options and/or futures markets for Bitcoin? Not really yet, but there will be more prominent ones soon. I hear about a new one pretty regularly, it seems, but nothing that seems truly legitimate has come out. I'm certainly excited for them, though.
Eventually, once Mr. Lawsky and co. get things sorted out, I'm certain we'll see a big-name investment bank start offering them.
From the time you started trading until today, what is your overall percentage return? In USD, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 300% over a little more than 2 months.
In BTC, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 425% over a little more than 2 months.
Using my average per-coin buy-in price, if I had just bought-and-held, I would have lost about 27% of my initial investment value.
Ben, i told you I'd be here and asking about Hearthstone first. If there's one class that needs a bit of tuning, up or down, which is it and why? I think Mage needs basic, class-level tuning. I'm not sure what needs to be done exactly, but I don't like what the Mage class power does to gameplay. I've thought some about how different it would be if it could only hit minions, and I'd want to know if Blizzard had tried that out. The Mage power is too versatile, and over the long-term I think it will prove to be problematic.
What's your favorite card? Lord Jaraxxus is my favorite card. He has a truly legendary feel to him when you play him, but your opponent can still win, even though he's very powerful.
So, where do you think we go from here? I'm currently short, but I don't expect to be so for a lot longer. I don't think we'll get past 550. I also don't expect this drop to hold on for a really long time.
I haven't seen a good, substantive rationale for what the MtGox situation really has to do with Bitcoin price. Yes, it looks bad, it certainly doesn't help with our legitimacy, but is it really worth the incredible price declines we continue to see? I don't think so. I think we are seeing these impressive declines because the price on MtGox (which is a reflection of trust in MtGox relative to Bitcoin price, not just Bitcoin price) has been declining heavily. I don't expect it to continue forever, especially not with things like the Winkdex and the accompanying ETF launching.
MtGox is basically dead to me, for now at least. The sooner everyone stops paying attention to it, the sooner we can all get back on track, which I, for one, will be quite happy about.
Do you think that it's a good thing for a game when the developers of that game discourage certain playing styles (e.g. mill decks or decks that try to win in unconventional manners) whether in hearthstone, MTG, or other TCGs? It can be. I don't want the developers metaphorically over my shoulder outlawing strategies, but I don't mind if the strategies that are "less fun" for your opponent (Draw/Go, Mill, or Hard Combo from MTG, for example) are also less powerful. Most players prefer a game where the best decks are also among the most fun, because it means that they are playing against fun decks more often. Clearly the 2-cost 3/3 will be played most often. If you fix this by making both 2-cost guys 2/2s or 3/3s, or by making one a 2/3 and the other a 3/2, then you've done something--but it's not that interesting. If you instead make the 2-cost 2/2 have text that says "While you control the 3-cost 3/3, this gets +2/+2" and you give the 3 cost 3/3 text that says "While you control the 2-cost 2/2, it has Taunt" you now have more complex cards that reward players for doing something other than just playing the best stand-alone card.
Which do you think is a better option to encourage diversity in TCGs; improving/buffing cards/decks that hardly see any play versus weakening/nerfing cards that are overwhelmingly played? This is obviously a very simplistic example, but I hope it makes the point. Games are more fun when you give players more relevant choices: buffing and nerfing cards tends not to do that as well as promoting synergies does.
Where/what is the actual money behind bitcoin? If it does exist. You might need to rephrase your question for me to understand what you're asking. If you're asking why a Bitcoin has value, the answer is the same as any other good: because someone is willing to pay it.
If you're asking why someone is willing to pay that amount, my answer would be utility.
I just got started on Bitfinex (using your referral link) and am a little intimidated. What types of trades would I recommend I try as a beginner? From there, just keep careful watch, and see what happens. Be neutral and objective toward your own hypothesis, just like in science. Don't be biased by your hopes, be focused on the reality.
So far I've only done a liquidity swap offer to try it since it seemed (nearly) risk free. Have you done any liquidity swap or is it too low in profit? If I'm not going to be able to check my computer for a day or two, or I'm uncertain of what's going to happen the next few days, I do use the liquidity swap function. It's actually very profitable, relative to traditional investments. And you're right, it is low-risk. I'm a fan. Good job selecting it if you were intimidated--that's a good place to start. As far as actually starting trading, do science. Start with a hypothesis. If you were up at 5 AM today when MtGox published their announcement, a good hypothesis might have been something like: "This announcement is going to be a blow to their credibility, and might panic the markets. We'll probably drop by some amount as a result." Invest based on it, figure out around what price you want to take profits, and at what price you'll cut your losses and get out. Stick to those determinations unless something substantive changes. The time you tell yourself you can afford to not close your position because it will "rebound" back to where you want is also the time you lose your shirt.
Is it true that you like Balloons? No, I <3 them.
Lol to the question about your mom... Ben, from my understanding Bitcoin is anonymous, does this mean that you can avoid taxation when receiving payment? Bitcoin isn't anonymous. That's actually a common misconception. It's actually pseudonymous, like Reddit. You end up with an online identity--a wallet address--that you use with Bitcoin.
If I walk up to you on a street corner and buy Bitcoin with cash, then I'm pretty much anonymous. If I buy it from a large institution like Coinbase or some other company, they will have records of the address my Bitcoin was bought for. As a result, you can trace them down, generally speaking.
As for avoiding taxation, that's a general no.
What do you think Bitcoin's biggest hurdle is and how do you think it can be overcome? Are there any misconceptions about Bitcoin that you think people have? The biggest hurdle for Bitcoin to overcome is governments. Governments have a variety of reasons not to want an alternative currency. We seem to have done pretty well on that front here in the US, but for other countries (China) that is not the case. Past that, the other major hurdle is something I consider an inevitability: consumer adoption. Business adoption has begun in earnest, consumer adoption hasn't. It will when enough businesses take Bitcoin to give it sufficient utility for the average customer.
What trading platform do you use to daytrade Bitcoin? What is the standard margin that Bitcoin brokers offer? what's the typical ask/bid spread? I primarily use Bitfinex.
Very few Bitcoin brokers currently offer leverage, Bitfinex offers 2.5:1. Over time, I anticipate it will become more like current Forex, where 10:1 or greater leverage is common.
It varies by exchange depending on their fees. Huobi charges 0% fees, so their spread is generally tiny. Some exchanges can be as wide as 1.5%. Typically, I see spreads between .5 and .7%.
Do you invest in any other type of cryptocurrency? if so, which is your favorite besides bitcoin? I currently have no other holdings, but I've held DOGE and LTC at points and am considering VTC and NXT. DOGE is probably my favorite, because if the community can keep this up for a little longer it will snowball into amaze.
Can you trade me a Jace? TMS WWK, TMS FTV, Beleren, MA, or AoT?
Beleren. M10, M11, LOR, JVC, JVCJPN, or Book Promo?
M10 and if not possible then M11. Sure.
I've been reading your blog for quite some time and especially like your summaries for recent events. Keep up the good work! Do you use strict stop-loss orders for your trades? When do you decide to close a trade? Especially in situations where you can basically see you profit/loss grow by the minute. When is enough? Do you have a longterm bitcoin investment you don't touch or do you use everything you have for trading? I do use relatively strict stop losses, but they're not stop loss orders. My conditions usually aren't just the price hitting a certain point, but instead it sustaining for a brief period, or hitting it with a certain volume, or with a certain amount of resistance to retreat. I don't want my stop loss to be triggered by some idiot who dumps 300 BTC and temporarily drops the price 15, but only ends up really dropping it 3. I am very strict with myself about this, though, generally speaking--if I can't trust promises I make to myself, what good am I?
Let's say for example you have a sum x dollar and a sum y bitcoin on your trading account. How much % of x or y do you risk at every trade? I've seen a formula for the max. amount of investment and read numerous times that traders shouldn't risk more than one or two percent of their "bankroll". Do you generally have dollar and btc or just one of them at any given time? 100% of funds in every trade, so long as all funds are easily moved into the position. Common exceptions are lack of liquidity and funds being on other exchanges. My reasoning for being all-in all-the-time is that it's a profit-maximizing move. It is also risk-maximizing. My risk tolerance is infinite; most people's isn't. Only ever one. Generally BTC if I'm long, dollar if I'm short. I prefer to double-dip, as otherwise it would be in contradiction to the 100% plan. I use everything I have for trading. Again, profit-maximization, infinite risk tolerance.
I decide a closing price when I'm near either my stop loss or my profit aim. I place a limit order or multiple limit orders wherever I need to. I avoid market orders whenever possible. Enough is when I hit my goals or my loss tolerance. I decide these at the start, but I frequently re-evaluate them as news and market conditions develop.
What is a typical bid/ask spread for Bitcoin? It depends what exchange you're looking at, but generally .5-.7%.
What's the best way to popularize Bitcoin among the masses? Add your own but would love your thoughts on: -microtransactions developing nations -gift economy (tipping) I would suggest just running around shouting "You get to be your own bank" is probably the best way.
In all seriousness, though--we don't need to try. It's going to happen on its own from now on, as the news media slowly starts to pick up the story. People will start appearing on TV talking about it with more and more frequency. Things like the Dogelympic teams are great PR and help boost it up, as well, of course, but in general it's just going to follow the adoption curve of every other technology.
If it picks up in a few developing nations that have stable internet, it will be a massive revolution for them. Self-banking can do a huge amount of good for an economy like theirs. We might see reports on that. If a major newspaper decides to run a permanent paywall like what the Sun-Times tested recently, that could be big as well. The slow PR from tipping on Reddit is another way, to be honest. Every bit helps, but the cryptocurrency community is now large enough that we're going to do a significant amount of organic, word-of-mouth style growth.
Do you think that a magic game could beat harthstone? If they do a good job, absolutely. They have to focus on the right things. It needs to be mobile-available, easy to pick up and play, and fun.
Is there a good crypto currency to get in on now, before it explodes like bitcoin did? There are plenty of options. Check out coinmarketcap.com. Fair warning, there are plenty of horrible things there--treat it kind of like penny stocks. I like BTC, LTC, DOGE, NXT, and VTC.
Also, why is it such a pain in the ass to buy them with actual money? Like you have to have bitcoins to buy other crypto currency. It's such a pain to buy them with USD because no one has made a good system to do it on, like Coinbase. If you think there's a desire, go do it!
Well the way I look at it, is how the hell else would you be able to buy them? Not everyone has piles of bitcoins lying around and I really don't want to spend $600+ on a single bitcoin just to buy some other currencies. Ah, I see the problem! You can buy fractions of a Bitcoin using Coinbase--I think .01BTC (~$6) is their minimum.
The March 2013 appreciation was from American and European investors and November 2013 was mainly from Chinese investors. Which group of people do you think will be the next to buy (I hate using the word invest when talking about bitcoin) bitcoin for investment purposes? American institutional and hobby investors. That is, Wall Street and people who pay attention to Wall Street.
Which do you think will be a better long term (~5 years) investment, Bitcoins, Litecoins, Dogecoins, Fetch Lands, Shock Lands, or Original Dual Lands? Does it change for ~10 years? Either Bitcoin or Fetch lands for 5 years. For 10 years, Bitcoin. I'd be worried about the 10-year view for paper MTG.
Ive been mining Bitcoins for years now, i have a good sum im my wallet but i never plan to use them. Does this make me a bad person? Approximately yes.
Ben, I should've simultaneously copied and pasted all of my questions from the Spreecast over to here but here are a few... It seems like the conspiracy crowd has really latched onto the idea of Bitcoin as being a discreet form of currency. If Bitcoin is backed up by the internet why would people choose having a currency that's being tracked over say cash, gold, different commodities? Having a currency be tracked has negatives and positives, but it's overwhelmingly positive for the average consumer. Because it's tracked, you don't need to pay someone to move your money for you. There also are no chargebacks, which means merchants aren't getting scammed and passing those costs onto consumers. Theft costs everyone money. It's also very fast--transactions confirm in just 10 minutes, regardless of size or where it's going. Transferring dollars from here to China is very difficult--transferring Bitcoin? Just as easy as from anywhere else to anywhere.
My job is a mix of voodoo, intuition, science, and news. In USD, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 300% over a little more than 2 months.
No, just gambling. In BTC, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 425% over a little more than 2 months.
Anyway, how have the profits been from start to finish compared to the market? Using my average per-coin buy-in price, if I had just bought-and-held, I would have lost about 27% of my initial investment value.
Are you willing to disclose how much you have in your trading portfolio/what kind of profit you turn both % and $ wise? In USD, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 300% over a little more than 2 months.
In BTC, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 425% over a little more than 2 months.
Using my average per-coin buy-in price, if I had just bought-and-held, I would have lost about 27% of my initial investment value.
What would you say is the easiest method of shorting bitcoin or any other coin? For shorting Bitcoin or Litecoin, check here.
For other coins, there isn't really a good way yet, to the best of my knowledge. A few exchanges have plans to add short-selling, but Bitfinex is really the only one I know of that has.
What did you have for breakfast today. Didn't breakfast, was delicious.
Hey Ben, I know next to nothing about Bitcoin. I went to /bitcoin after seeing this AMA on your FB, and I noticed that everyone is going apeshit over "Gox". I have no idea what that means or why everyone is so sad/angry/suicidal. MtGox (which originally stood for Magic the Gathering Online eXchange) was the first prominent Bitcoin exchange. They've been going through some rather rough times lately, some of which I was an early cataloguer of here. In short, everyone is freaking out because the exchange may be insolvent. It's not really a big deal to Bitcoin as a whole, but it's certainly an obvious blow to credibility. In my view, people are primarily upset because MtGox has been a part of Bitcoin for a very long time, and it can be hard to let go of what we're used to. I expect that they will either fix the issues or will go out of business officially very soon.
Please explain what happened.
Tell me every artist in your iTunes. Daft Punk, detektivbyrån, Kid Cudi, Matisyahu, The White Panda.
Spotify for life, yo.
Follow up question, what % are you in BTC vs Fiat and when you are on the losing side of a trade do you find your self dumping in more to get right or do you pull the cord Unless my positions are on different exchanges or in different coins, they're all always 100% of what I'll put into that trade at entrance and exit. As a result, I end up with a binary choice: stay or reduce/close. I very rarely reduce position size, nearly always preferring to just end the position instead.
Last updated: 2014-02-25 04:57 UTC
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Margin Trading 101: How It Works - YouTube

Understanding forex leverage, margin requirements and sizing trades for successful trading. You'll see the position size, pip value and margin calculators in action. It also has a trade simulator and support for multiple base currencies plus much more. One trading jargon that you’ll hear very often is margin. It’s usually in terms like margin account, margin trading and even margin call. It seems a bit comp... Day Trading Margin! Should you use it? Now thats a good question and it seems that some people are confused on how Margin works and why its an everyday tool ... What is margin trading? What is a margin? What is the difference between a cash account and a margin account? In episode #34 of Real World Finance we dive deep ... Learn to calculate your profits and losses on Forex

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